Covid-like deadly pandemic could hit the world in next decade

Climate change, growth in international travel, increasing populations and the threat posed by zoonotic diseases contribute to the risk, according to London-based Airfinity Ltd. But if effective vaccines are rolled out 100 days after the discovery of a new pathogen, the likelihood of a deadly pandemic drops to 8.1%, according to the firm’s modeling.

Bloomberg

April 14, 2023 / 14:59 IST

Covid-like deadly pandemic could hit the world in next decade

There’s a 27.5% chance a pandemic as deadly as Covid-19 could take place in the next decade as viruses emerge more frequently, with rapid vaccine rollout the key to reducing fatalities, according to a predictive health analytics firm.

Climate change, growth in international travel, increasing populations and the threat posed by zoonotic diseases contribute to the risk, according to London-based Airfinity Ltd. But if effective vaccines are rolled out 100 days after the discovery of a new pathogen, the likelihood of a deadly pandemic drops to 8.1%, according to the firm’s modeling.

In a worst-case scenario, a bird flu type virus that mutates to allow human-to-human transmission could kill as many as 15,000 people in the UK in a single day, Airfinity said.

With the world now living with Covid-19, health experts are turning their attention to preparing for the next potential global threat. The past two decades have already seen three major coronaviruses that cause SARS, MERS and Covid-19 emerge, as well as the swine flu pandemic in 2009.

The rapid spread of the H5N1 bird flu strain is already stoking concerns. While so far just a small number of people have been infected and there are no signs of it having made the jump to human-to-human transmission, skyrocketing rates in birds and increasing incursions in mammals have led to concern among scientists and governments that the virus may be mutating in ways that could make it easier to spread.

COVID-19 Vaccine

Frequently Asked Questions

How does a vaccine work?

A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine.

How many types of vaccines are there?

There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine.

What does it take to develop a vaccine of this kind?

Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time.

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