MC Daily Monsoon Tracker: Eleven states witness normal or above normal rainfall

Punjab, Haryana continue to face rainfall deficit

India’s rainfall deficit narrowed to 17.8% until June 24, compared with 18.1% the previous day, data released by the Indian Meteorological Department showed, as eleven states witnessed normal or above normal rainfall.

Punjab and Haryana continued to witness around 75% decline in rainfall compared to the normal. A Moneycontrol analysis shows rainfall deficits are narrowing in Northern Indian states, except Punjab and Haryana. UP’s rainfall deficit is 73% compared to 78% a few days ago. (see graphic)

In monsoon parlance, a normal is calculated using a long-period average of 30 years for a specific region.

A deficit is computed in percentage terms if the rainfall is below the long-period average.

In 12 states, precipitation was lower than 50% of normal during this period. These include Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Jharkhand and Gujarat.

The reservoir level situation has worsened. For the country, reservoir levels were down 9% from normal as of June 20, compared with 8% last week.

Tamil Nadu, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh have an over 50% deficit in reservoir levels.

Economists contend that the situation can hurt farm income, agricultural output and consumer inflation. Food inflation was sticky above 8% in May and will likely stay elevated in the coming months.

Higher food inflation means that rural inflation has outstripped urban inflation for nearly a year and is likely to do so in the coming months.

High rural inflation further eats into wages, which affects the rural economy.

The agricultural sector recorded 1.4% growth in FY24, compared to 4.7% in the previous year, lower than the 3.7% long-term average.