El Niño prediction likely to be more accurate in April: IMD

The warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is referred to as El Niño, which means little boy in Spanish. (Image: AP)

There is a possibility of an El Niño impact on India’s monsoon this year; however, a more accurate prediction will be issued in April, the Indian meteorological department said.

“There is a weak El Niño in the Pacific. As of the latest situation, we are moving to a neutral situation in May-June. During monsoon there can be El Niño impact. We should wait for April when the El Niño prediction will be accurate,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told Moneycontrol in a panel discussion.

The forecast of an El Niño year has caused anxiety over its likely effect on the southwest monsoon, which is crucial for the entire economy, especially the farming sector.

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The warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is referred to as El Niño. Such a phenomenon could impact weather across the world, including the southwest monsoon in India. An El Niño could lead to drier conditions and cause a deficit in the monsoon.

“Any predictions now will have low accuracy due to the spring barrier. Accuracy beyond 3-4 months is low. Not only El Niño , but the Indian Ocean Dipole i.e. see-saw of sea surface temperature will also impact monsoon. Another factor is European snow cover which is less this year, which means a warmer situation. We should not cover any one of the reasons to derive any opinion,” he said.

February saw higher-than-usual temperatures in a day across north-western India and certain areas of central India.

“Temperature was 5-8 degree above normal in January over Gujarat, Rajasthan, north-Maharashtra, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, because of a typical weather situation in association with anti-cyclone located over Gujarat. The maximum temperature rose to 37-38 degree over Gujarat and then the heat transferred to other states. Temperature was also high over other parts of north-western India. Anti-cyclone has moved away and as a result temperature is still 1-3 degree higher over plains of northern India,” he said.

That said, a hot February does not determine that April and May will also be hotter than expected.

“In IMD, we forecast summer temperature by the end of April or March. Prior to that, it’s not correct to associate the temperature in Feb with May temperature. We are moving towards neutral conditions in the summer season. Since Dec rainfall has been quite less in central India, it has been 40% deficient in this season which also increases the temperature. The deficient rainfall was mainly due to weak western disturbances,” Mohapatra said.