Independence Day box office will touch Rs 100 crore from films like Jailer, Gadar 2, says analyst

Films like Gadar 2, Rajinikanth's Jailer will see boost in box office business due to August 15 holiday

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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The August 15 holiday will be crucial for the film industry that is seeing some stability at the box office after a muted June quarter.

After Hollywood content like Oppenheimer and Barbie brought some respite to the  business, it is Hindi and regional content that is seeing strong traction amid audience currently.

I-Day box office boost

Between the four major releases, Rajinikanth-starrer Jailer, Sunny Deol's Gadar 2, OMG 2 starring Akshay Kumar, and Telugu-language film Bholaa Shankar, the Independence Day holiday will record collections worth Rs 100 crore, said Girish Johar, film producer and trade business analyst.

He said that it is such a lucrative period referring to the Independence Day holiday that will help India's box office make up for the shortfall in the first half of 2023. "India box office was down 20 percent in the first half. So, we are already lagging behind so we need to cover up that and we need to bring in more. Hence, the extended long August 15 weekend is critical."

Over the weekend, he expects occupancy to reach 80 percent. Occupancy levels at multiplexes improved in the range of 80-85 percent of the pre-COVID level in July versus 70-75 percent during the same period in FY23.

"We are expecting this weekend to be promising and maybe the second best after Pathaan. The admits will take a boost with the advantage of the Independence Day holiday," said Amit Sharma, MD, Miraj Entertainment.

Major releases 

The box office collections for Gadar 2 in India for the opening weekend should be at Rs 110 crore and OMG 2 should be at Rs 30 crore, noted Rahul Puri, MD, Mukta A2 Cinemas. Jailer, which was released on August 10 is estimated to have collected Rs 50 crore on its opening day at the India box office.

Johar expects over Rs 85 crore combined box office revenue on August 11 (Friday) for Jailer, Gadar 2, and OMG 2.

“The upcoming weekend holds great intrigue as a power-packed slate released this Friday, which will be followed by the national holiday for Independence Day. Rajinikanth-starrer Jailer amassed nearly 900,000 tickets on the platform. Gadar 2 has witnessed close to 300,000 ticket bookings," said Ashish Saksena, COO - Cinemas, BookMyShow.

Gadar 2's lifetime revenue is expected to touch Rs 150 crore while Jailer is estimated to do business of Rs 180 crore; OMG 2 is expected to remain on the lower end at Rs 40 crore.

Hindi BO remains key

While Gadar 2 is expected to do strong business, Hindi box office collections will likely be 25 percent lower in the September quarter of FY24 at Rs 750 crore.

"Some films in recent months have packed really good numbers and it is safe to say that the box office performance for the Hindi market is improving, slowly but steadily, and with the kind of line-up that awaits us in 2024, we are expecting this to continue for FY24," said Sharma.

Consistent performance of Hindi films will be key for multiplexes like PVR Inox which saw a weak June quarter. Hindi content that contributed 60 percent to overall box office revenue in pre-COVID times, and currently which is at 35 percent will be a key driver of profitability, as multiplexes have a sizeable market share in the Hindi genre at 75-80 percent. Hindi content also results in higher advertising revenue and spend per head (SPH) and stands second best after the English genre," an Elara Capital note said.

The note added that the box office performance of upcoming Hindi films for the next month is muted as all hopes are pinned on Shah Rukh Khan-starrer Jawan (releasing on September 7), resulting in high dependence on big-budget films.