Business of over Rs 250 crore from 2.0 will save the Rs 1,000 crore dream in Q4

The last three months of the year are the closing period for the film industry. This automatically makes it one of the most crucial periods. In addition, the last quarter is also lucrative because of the number of festive holidays falling during this period. From Dusshera to Christmas, the festive mood amid the audiences makes the closing quarter bankable.

However, Diwali did not turn to be as exciting for the movie-goers. The Rs 300-crore venture, Thugs of Hindostan, tanked at the box office, spelling bad news both for the audience and the industry.

Talking to Moneycontrol, film trade analyst Joginder Tuteja, said, “It (Thugs of Hindostan) has impacted big time because this is the most lucrative period and we were expecting a revenue in the excess of Rs 300 crore from this film. Now, it is going to stop at Rs 150 crore and that’s a huge disappointment.”

“Audiences did expect a lot from this Diwali and we saw that on day one with the film earning Rs 50 crore. So, they did want to watch the film. But after the opening day, the audiences were so disappointed that they stopped going to the theatres,” he added.

But the film wasn’t a let-down for cinephiles alone. Exhibitors, distributors and producers are bearing the brunt of the failure of Thugs of Hindostan as well.

“From the point of view of exhibitors and distributors, they have invested so much and they expect at least minimal returns. Hence, this is a huge disappointment for them as well. More so because between Thugs of Hindostan and 2.0, which is releasing after a three-week gap, there is no other film. Imagine the theatres are running empty not just in the week of Thugs of Hindostan releasing, but it’s going to be the same for the next two weeks as well. So, that will mean huge loss of revenue,” Tuteja explained.

As for the producers he said, “It’s not just about one producer Yash Raj Films (YRF) losing money here. It also demoralizes so many other film makers who potentially have been thinking about putting together Rs 150-Rs 200 crore film.”

But does that mean that the industry does not need big-budget ventures? Absolutely not. In fact, the industry needs the right balance of both small, medium and big-ticket films.

“You cannot just survive on the likes of a Stree or a Badhaai Ho or Raazi—the Rs 20-Rs 30 crore films giving back Rs 100 crore returns. Because you actually need films that give us back the revenue of Rs 300-Rs 350 crore that’s what keeps the industry actually running.”

But Thugs of Hindostan has dampened the sentiments. The industry was betting big on Thugs of Hindostan along with 2.0, Total Dhamaal, Zero and Simmba. However, with the Aamir Khan and Amitabh Bachchan-starrer proving a dud at the box office, the industry is not as confident as it was earlier.

“Now it is just 2.0, Zero and Simmba which are left. Thugs of Hindostan has performed so poorly now we need to hit six in the each of these and we cannot afford a loss-making film,” Tuteja said.

“If 2.0 does not do a business of around Rs 200-Rs 250 crore then absolutely the dream of Rs 1,000 crore is gone. So, consistently each of these films have to do well. But it is still possible because 2.0, Zero and Simmba have the potential even Kedarnath,” Tuteja added.

Initially, it was expected that the five major films in the last quarter together will bring Rs 1,200 crore.

There is no denying that 2.0 has created the required buzz. But now it has a bigger battle to fight. 2.0 has to instill confidence among audience and encourage them to come back to theatres. A lot of hopes are pinning on the Rajinikanth, Akshay Kumar-starrer. The film is likely to release on as many as 6,500 screens.

So far, 2018 has turned out to be a successful year for the film industry. In an earlier interview, Tuteja had said that 2018 surpassed the earnings of the last three quarters of the last year. Around Rs 2,000 crore were already generated in the first three quarters of 2018. Compared with the last three quarters of the year gone by (2017) – it was Rs 1,600 crore - Rs 1,700 crore.

This year, Hindi movies in total reported a revenue of Rs 1,103 crore, a 42 percent jump in growth over the first quarter of 2017. The industry also scored more in the first half of 2018 in comparison to the first half of the previous two years.