After Pathaan, theatres count on Salman Khan's Eid release to drive footfalls

Movie poster of Salman Khan's 2023 Eid release Kisi Ka Bhai Kisi Ki Jaan. Image: @ZeeStudios

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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After Shah Rukh Khan's blockbuster Pathaan, all eyes in Bollywood are now on Salman Khan, who makes his comeback on Eid after a three-year hiatus. Exhibitors are counting on the new release to set the box office alight.

While 2023 started on a strong note with Pathaan releasing in January, making over Rs 1,000 crore, becoming the highest grossing film of the year and the second highest earning Hindi film of all time, other releases in the first three months have not fared well.

Exhibitors are hoping the dry spell will end with the release of Salman Khan's Kisi Ka Bhai Kisi Ki Jaan.

"In terms of footfall and occupancy, theatres are in a bad shape. Footfalls are currently down by around 20 percent versus pre-Covid, but region-wise, Hindi is down by 40 percent. So Bollywood releases are impacted the most," said Amit Sharma, Managing Director, Miraj Cinemas.

Only Pathaan performed strongly in the March quarter of 2023, said Girish Johar, producer and film business expert.

"Theatre business is not in a good position. It is underwhelming and cinemas need back-to-back hits. There were below average films in March quarter like Tu Jhoothi Main Makkaar that did around Rs 130 crore business and Ajay Devgn's Bholaa that collected around Rs 70 crore. The new quarter (April-May-June) is very critical and it is starting with Kisi Ka Bhai Kisi Ki Jaan," he said.

The Salman Khan release is a key movie to track, said Sharma.

"Post-Covid, mid-budget films are not working. It is mostly tent-pole films. Being a Salman Khan film, we are expecting it to be big and expect it to be a Rs 200 crore venture (in terms of box office earnings). Expect the first weekend for the film to be around Rs 60 crore," he added.

The film is estimated to have sold 14,500 tickets across multiplexes including PVR, INOX and Cinepolis since the advance booking opened on April 17, according to estimates by film trade analysts.

Mumbai's iconic single screen Gaiety Galaxy theatre is reported to have sold over 1,200 tickets for the Salman Khan release on the opening weekend within 24 hours of advance sales going live.

"Advance booking for the film is promising and the audience is eager to watch Salman Khan on the big screen. We expect the film will see one of the best openings for Eid releases and estimate the movie to do around Rs 75-80 crore in the opening weekend," said Devang Sampat, CEO, Cinépolis India.

Abhishek Jain, Head of Research at Arihant Capital, has a different take. Advance booking sales estimated to be 50,000 tickets looks below market expectations, he said.

"While advances are good for the film, box office dynamics have completely changed and now we cannot expect a Rs 40-50 crore opening. I am expecting a Rs 18-20 crore start. This is for two reasons. Eid timing is not favourable in terms of box office collections. And as per the new box office parameters, if a film is not up to the mark then it goes down the hill," said Johar.

It all depends entirely on the content, said Akshaye Rathi, film exhibitor/director, Saroj Screens.

"If the Salman Khan film lives up to the expectation then it will do well but if it doesn't and underperforms then it won't do even what an average Salman Khan films did before Covid,” he said.

Also, if you see in the current scenario, barring Bholaa, or Varun Dhawan-starrer Bhediya, there are no films which have been average performers. Either films are hitting out of the park or are not working at all," he added.

Rathi said that while Pathaan did big numbers with the star power backing of Shah Rukh Khan, Deepika Padukone and John Abraham, it was shocking to see the earnings of films like Laal Singh Chaddha  and Raksha Bandhan.

"The numbers such films recorded makes you wonder how audience is consuming content on the big screen. We can figure out by releasing more films and explore different styles of storytelling," he said.

But Rathi added that for the Salman Khan venture there are a lot of expectation as the film is a family entertainer. And Eid celebrations are expected to bring audience in large numbers to the cinemas.

"The audience looks forward to Eid releases every year as per our experience. Of course, Covid put a dampener during the last 3 years, but we expect to be back with great fervour this year. Pre-Covid, Eid was always a bankable holiday with at least one blockbuster or more releasing," said Sampat.

Jain said the ongoing Indian Premier League (IPL) could have an impact on the earnings of new release.

"IPL has high viewership this time. We see an impact of IPL on box office business. Any meaningful recovery should start from June onwards. We have seen below-par February and March for Bollywood. We expect some recovery from June onwards," he said.

Sharma said he was disappointed with the Bollywood release calendar, but added that from June on, every week is chock-a-block.

"The lineup for Q1 (FY24- April-May-June) looks promising, especially for regional and Hollywood releases with many franchise movies slated to release like Guardians of Galaxy 3, Fast X and PS 2 (Tamil and other languages). We expect that in terms of admissions Q1 FY24 could be similar to Q1 FY23, which saw releases like KGF2, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun, Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2, among others and was one of the best quarters for the (multiplex) industry. We expect FY24 to be better than FY23 by about 25-30 percent in footfall growth," said Sampat.