COVID-19 cases in India to peak in June-July, no declining trend despite lockdown: AIIMS director

AIIMS Director Dr Randeep Guleria

Dr Randeep Guleria, the director of All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), has said that even after spending more than 40 days in strict lockdown India has not seen a declining trend in new novel coronavirus cases.

In an interview where he spoke about the need to continue imposing lockdown and other aggressive measures in red zones, hotspots, and adjacent areas, Dr Guleria pointed out how most other countries -- such as Italy and China -- that took such strict social distancing measures started seeing the benefits of it after a month.

For live updates on coronavirus, click here

However, the same cannot be said about India. In fact, the AIIMS Director predicted that COVID-19 cases in the country would peak between June and July, reported the Live Mint.

Commenting that COVID-19 cases in India are increasing at a linear pace, he said: “Currently, the cases are continuing to grow at a flat rate, sometimes even more. So, it is very difficult to predict when the peak will come; but it is likely to peak around June or July. This is why we need to be prepared for it and more vigilant to bring the number of cases down. We will need to continue the lockdown for some more time with careful deliberation, considering health, economy, and everything in mind.”

Dr Guleria added that one of the main reasons behind the increasing number of cases was increased testing. If one compares the number of people tested for the deadly virus and the number of people who actually tested positive, the number stands at hardly 4 to 4.5 percent.

The primary concern right now is that India has not seen a declining trend in the number of COVID-19 cases being reported yet, even after spending more than 40 days under stringent lockdown. In light of this, the AIIMS Director said that one would need to revisit the containment strategy being employed to craft it as per the evolving situation.