Bollywood needs to keep expectations lower in 2021 despite biggies hitting theatres

There is a good reason for Bollywood to rejoice. After all, it would be practically one year after the last big film to release, Baaghi 3 (March 6, 2020), that the industry is bracing up for a big blockbuster arrival in the form of Sooryavanshi. While the modalities are still being worked out for the eventual date of arrival for the Akshay Kumar starrer, indications are that the Rohit Shetty directed film is aiming for the Good Friday (April 2) release.

So far, so good. After all, the whole jinx around 'biggies staying away from theatres' would be finally broken. Yes, there have been some releases since lockdown was eased out. However, except for Suraj Pe Mangal Bhari which has still managed to accumulate Rs 4 crore and is still gaining from 'early arriver' benefit by getting screens and shows at the multiplexes, none of the others has managed to touch even the Rs 1-crore mark. Indoo Ki Jawaani, Ramprasad Ki Tehervi, Shakeela, 12'0 Clock, Madam Chief Minister - box office has painted an all around sorry picture.

Of course, things will become better once Sooryavanshi arrives, and then Radhe (Eid 2021) and then '83 in June. The second quarter does seem to be sorted with a big superstar arrival in each month, right from Akshay Kumar and Salman Khan to Ranveer Singh. Rest assured, once the exact release dates for these big ticket films are announced by the makers, dozens of other filmmakers will follow suit as well.

Things will become better once Sooryavanshi arrives, and then Radhe (Eid 2021) and then '83 in June.

The answer is, no!

By no means is this a pessimistic stance. It is just being realistic, that's all. For any stream of work, be it standalone or something that's run as a business, there is something called 'course correction' that comes into picture. One can't expect a ship which has been standing still for a year to suddenly roar, and that too at the same level as its best run course, and then sprint ahead at a fast pace. It needs to be slow, steady and consistent.

For starters, there is basic mathematics that will come into play. Taking an example of 2019, when Rs 4,400 crore came in 12 months, that meant an average of Rs 1,100 crore per quarter. Let's not forget the first three months of 2019 actually brought in Rs 1,103 crore, which is exactly the same as the just quoted average. There was one 200-Crore Club blockbuster Uri - The Surgical Strike followed by two films that went past the 150 crores mark (Kesari, Total Dhamaal) and then one century (Gully Boy) and two near-centuries (Luka Chuppi, Manikarnika).

What do we have in the first quarter of 2021? Practically nothing. Zero. Nada. There is nothing notable planned for February and nothing has been planned as yet for March either. Even by basic average, one can at best expect the rest of the year to bring in Rs 3,300 crore by considering an average of Rs 1,100 crore per quarter from this moment on. That, too, if one assumes that the box office returns of the best year ever, 2019, would be repeated in 2021, when things are yet to get in the first gear.

Now it is understandable that this isn't something that would happen by the farthest stretch of imagination. Yes, COVID-19 cases have (thankfully) started going down in a big way. The vaccine is also available. People have started stepping out of the house. There is 'revenge vacation' in vogue. Moreover, cinema entertainment as well is being missed big time. However, the key phrase here is 'course correction'. One can't expect patrons to let go of their guards and start visiting theatres one Friday after another at a much rapid pace. It's going to be gradual.

Every year, an average of 70-80 notable films release in theatres. These are the ones which have at least a known star or a producer or a director at the helm of affairs. That's an average of six-seven films every month. Given the kind of backlog that has accumulated, perhaps the number will go up to nine-10. From April to December, expect around 80-90 films eventually releasing.

However to begin with, audience attention can well be relegated to the likes of Sooryavanshi, Radhe, '83, Pathan, Prithviraj, Laal Singh Chaddha, Satyameva Jayate 2, K.G.F - Chapter 2, Bellbottom, Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2, RRR, Maidaan and Gangubai Kathaiwadi, to name a few, to begin with. Yes, there would be more and a few may spring a surprise as well. However, one can't expect a cut of around 25 percent at least on the Rs 3,300 crore worth of market available at its disposal. That would come to roughly Rs 2,500 crore as the final tally before 2021 comes to a close.

Even if that turns out to be the case, it won't be a big deal after all. Coming from 2020 that had brought in a mere Rs 780 crore (primarily on the power of Tanhaji - The Unsung Warrior (Rs 280 crore) and Baaghi 3 (Rs 95 crores), even Rs 2,500 crores coming in 2021 would be reasonably good after all.