The appreciation of rupee could continue in the short term, but in the long-term, experts feel that the rupee will weaken against the USD.
The GDP growth forecasts have been affected by demonetisation, which in turn has led to high expectations of a budget which will cut taxes, incentivize savings, raise more revenue, be anti-inflationary and push growth
Buying gold on this day every year, is akin to a systematic investment plan in gold.
According to Jayant Manglik, President, Retail Distribution at Religare Securities, Budget 2016 focused on developing agriculture, rural markets and the middle class which are important for our growth over the next several years.
Stock markets may see volatile trading sessions in a holiday-shortened week ahead amid derivative contracts expiry and would take cues from foreign investors' investment trend and movement of the rupee, say experts.
Stock markets are likely to remain volatile this week ahead of the derivatives contract expiry for this month, while global cues and rupee movements may largely drive the trading sentiments, say experts. Moreover, monsoon rains, investment trend by foreign investors and crude oil movement would also influence trading.
Rising tensions in the Middle East, liquidity conditions in the market and overall investment trend of foreign funds will largely dictate trend on the bourses in this holiday shortened week, say experts
Budget should take steps to make commodities markets in India more vibrant. Taxation issues should be resolved and more investments should be encouraged into real infrastructure such as warehouses, cold storage logistics to ensure low wastage.
Most commodities have seen price erosion and volatility in CY2014. However as the global growth catches up, commodities may look up.
Second quarter earnings from bluechip companies like RIL and TCS, inflation data and investment by overseas investors would dictate trading in the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, say experts.
There has been some talk that the Budget could levy a commodity transaction tax (CTT). Jayant Manglik, President at Religare Securities in an interview to CNBC-TV18 says he would be surprised if the Finance Minister tried to impose CTT in the upcoming Budget.
Jayant Manglik, president - retail distribution at Religare Securities said, "Given the lack of investment alternatives across the world, bullion is the place to be in."
Commodity prices typically impact a significant portion of the import bill of most countries. India too imports several commodities and while we have no control on the international prices per se, we can and do use man-made taxes to calibrate consumption within our country.
Speaking about the dollar/rupee trading strategy he said,"We would sell USD INR at 45.20 with a target of 44.50 and stop loss at 45.60."