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In about 10 months, payroll addition has nearly stagnated and unemployment rate has picked up, but GDP and consumption data continue to surprise on the upside, despite tariff headwinds
India gains ground as Fed maintains rates and investors seek stability beyond the West
Initially, the US central bank will respond primarily to the non-farm payroll trajectory. But later on, any aggressive stance by Trump on global trade, the fiscal deficit and immigration can potentially rekindle inflation
The Fed went all out last week. The aftershocks of the jumbo cut are still reverberating
Stock portfolio churn could be tricky as Fed takes cues from high-frequency indicators and starts cutting rates for better risk-reward balance
US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell has signalled the beginning of rate cuts in September
US Federal Reserve cooled, but did not dispel, hopes for a cut in September before November’s election
Fed is unlikely to get to its 2% inflation target unless it is willing to impose major damage on the economy
Strong US economic growth will not halt central bank’s plan to reduce borrowing costs this year
The end of the central bank’s monetary tightening campaign is in sight — and so are rate cuts
New projections and remarks from chair Jay Powell signal no near-term relief from elevated borrowing costs
Inflation still remains a concern. But now, there are bigger worries over the long-term impact of the structural shifts in the global economy
The Fed chair’s early Jackson Hole speeches indicate a lot about how he thinks about the equilibrium real rate of interest
The Fed chair has a multiplicity of targets for whatever approach he takes at Jackson Hole address on Friday
Investors have started taking note of the best-performing fixed income investments so far this year
Several Federal Reserve officials have mused about putting off an interest-rate increase at the June policy meeting. History shows that’s a smart move in a hazy economy
A bit of humility from central banks is okay. Let’s not have too much thinking out loud
US yield curve is at its most inverted since 1981 in sign investors see recession on horizon
In today’s edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: Oil market is likely to be volatile in 2023, unlocking state economic activity, crypto awareness has served India well, Gujarat contest crucial for AAP, and more
And how the yield curve might be wrong
For policymakers and investors, there will be more bracing realities to digest in the months ahead
The central banker missed an opportunity to regain control of the Federal Reserve’s policy narrative
Markets react to delta/change in events, numbers and narrative. Prospects of additional fiscal stimulus, geopolitical risks and uncertainty with respect to US elections will get more and more investor attention
This however doesn’t take away the risks. The virus is the central risk. It can jeopardise and delay the economic recovery, leading to more financial instability
Fed’s dot plot clearly conveys a strong consensus for “lower for longer” rates. On top of that, the Fed ascertains that policy tools/stimulus measures would be used “forcefully, proactively and aggressively” as the need arise to support economy.
