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Bharat Iyer of JPMorgan says one interpretation for this trend could be that a positive verdict emboldens the ruling party to pursue the agenda with more confidence and vigour and it fragments the opposition.
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Iyer feels technical and momentum indicators also appear a tad stretched. Consequently, he expects a phase of consolidation in the equity markets near term.
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Given that things are returning to normal nearly three months after demonetisation and that the impact of the currency overhaul exercise isn‘t as bad as it was painted, 7900-7950 is a very strong support level for Nifty, said JPMorgan‘s Head Of India Equity Research Bharat Iyer said.
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In a panel discussion on CNBC-TV18, JP Morgan's top experts listed their views on topics ranging from the recent macroeconomic developments to what the equity market holds for the coming year.
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Over the last six months, the government has put in a lot of building blocks in place for a broad-based growth and focus will now be on implementation of these policies says Bharat Iyer, Head Of India Equity Research at JPMorgan.
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Bharat Iyer of JP Morgan remains positive on a 12-month timeframe and believes any correction would be a buying opportunity.
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Some analysts believe that the market's negative reaction to recent events in the IT space may be overdone.
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In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Iyer talked about JP Morgan‘s view on India, upcoming market triggers and investment themes to look out for.
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Bharat Iyer of JP Morgan says he expects Indian equities to deliver returns of 12-14 percent over the next twelve months, adding valuations at 17x forward earnings are higher than the average seen over the last decade.
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Bharat Iyer of JP Morgan says base case is for Indian equities to deliver 12-15 percent over the next 12 months, driven mainly by earnings growth forecast.
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Bharat Iyer of JP Morgan expects the earnings recovery to gather momentum into FY17 and estimates earnings growth of 12-14 percent for FY17 for the broad market.
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there has not been any positive surprise from the parliamentary proceedings for Indian equity investors yet. The Finance Bill and the Bankruptcy Code are scheduled to be discussed in the current week, says Bharat Iyer of JPMorgan.
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Bharat Iyer of JPMorgan believes the market could have an appetite for fiscal slippage provided the end use of funds is very clearly mandated and adhered to for important issues like PSU banks recapitalisation.
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According to Bharat Iyer of JPMorgan, progress on reforms and global risk appetite will continue to be the main drivers of markets.
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Ridham Desai, MD, Morgan Stanley India, says India continues to be the best house in a bad neighbourhood and that there is tremendous appetite to buy India.
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Thomas Rookmaaker, Director in Fitch Ratings‘ Asia-Pacific Sovereigns says the election results are not likely to impact decisions by foreign investors in other states. Hence he does not expect major implications on the economic front.
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According to Mahesh Nandurkar, CLSA, the market may fear that the prime minister will start spending more time on party politics and he would have less time available for governance.
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At a time when volatility-hit street is hinting at jettisoning equities in favour of fixed income, JP Morgan believes equities will beat all other asset classes in 3-5 years.
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Iyer said the brokerage is underweight on consumer discretionary, particularly with a rural bias. "We remain positive on IT services and healthcare," he added.
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We had a target for USD-INR of 66/dollar by Q1 CY2016 and 66.50/dollar by Q2 CY2106. We remain overweight on IT and healthcare, says Bharat Iyer of JPMorgan.
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Iyer is bearish on two wheelers and tractors as he feels rural demand will be under pressure for another year. He is bullish on passenger cars, but not trucks as he is till cautious on the investment cycle.
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From a fundamental perspective, the medium to long-term appeal of Indian equities remains healthy, given structural factors & a much improved policy environment, Bharat Iyer of JPMorgan said.
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In trade today, bank stocks were stars with big gainers like Axis Bank, SBI and ICICI Bank. Bank Nifty ended up 2.6 percent from previous close. GAIL and M&M were other gainers in the Sensex.
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Bharat Iyer of JP Morgan says that FIIs are overweight on Indian equities by 390 bps versus the benchmark (MSCI EM) – near historic highs.
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In terms of sector stance, Bharat Iyer, JP Morgan maintained the focus should remain on alpha, rather than beta.
