Finance Minister P Chidambaram will be walking a tightrope when he presents an interim budget for the coming fiscal year, doling out more funds to woo voters and tax cuts to support industry while projecting a lower fiscal deficit before elections.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18‘s Sonia Shenoy and Latha Venkatesh, Ajay Marwaha, head trading treasury, HDFC Bank, says the reason for the pressure on emerging market currencies, including the rupee, is the rate hikes seen in Turkey and South Africa.
CAD stood at USD 21.8 billion in Q1 against the projected USD 22 billion. Going forward, this number is expected to significantly decrease in the second quarter.
At the current level of 8.85 percent, massive amount of negativity has already been factored into bond yields, says Ajay Marwaha, head trading treasury at HDFC Bank.
Ajay Marwaha expects the US non-farm payroll data to be strong. According to him, whatever evidences the market has seen so far out of the US data, they will have some impact across all emerging markets including the rupee.
According to Ajay Marwaha, the rapid fall in the rupee today is due to the problems in emerging markets. Most of the EM currencies particularly the real and the lira, both are suffering and the rupee has been doing likewise.