Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Rallis India
Rallis India (RALI) 4QFY23 results were below our and consensus expectations primarily led by (a) domestic crop protection (CP) revenue remaining flat YoY; (b) export revenues up by 7% YoY; (c) seed revenues down 3% YoY to Rs250mn; (d) Gross margins contracting by 800bps YoY to 26.7%, led by provisions of inventory (Rs400mn) & impairment of intangible assets (Rs240mn) in seeds business (Ex- off provisions stood at 39%; PLe 38%);(e) Lower gross profit coupled with higher opex (up 300bps YoY) pertaining to increased A&P spends before kharif season and provisioning of Rs46mn for notice served by MBPT during the year resulting in widening of EBITDA loss at Rs653mn v/s loss of Rs28mn in 4QFY22. Adjusting to the provisions, EBITDA/PAT loss stood at Rs19mn/Rs54mn as against loss of Rs28mn/142mn in the base quarter. Additionally, RALI also launched 3 and 5 new products each under 9(3) and 9(4) category respectively in FY23 while CRAMS gaining traction; MPP plant is nearing completion and is expected to be commissioned by Q1FY24. Maintain ‘HOLD’.
Outlook
We trim our EPS estimates by 16%15% for FY24E/25E citing slower revenue growth and margin pressure, amid forecast of an El-nino event in the upcoming monsoon season. Accordingly, we maintain ‘HOLD’ rating on the stock with revised TP of Rs200 from Rs240 earlier based on 18xFY25 EPS.
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