Emkay Global Financial's research report on Oil India
Oil India’s Q3FY23 S/A revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Rs58.8/28.6/17.5bn was 1%/24%/32% above our estimates. EBITDA/PAT reported a sizeable beat on lower opex (Rs10.0bn vs. Rs14.3bn), owing to lower sundry expenses and contract costs and provisions write-back. Total crude output rose 7% YoY to 0.81mmt (largely in-line), while gas output was up 2% to 0.81bcm (slight beat). Statutory levies were 6% lower due to windfall levies at Rs6.2k/mt against our Rs7.6k/mt estimate. Transportation income was up 85% YoY to Rs1.6bn. Crude realization fell 12% QoQ to USD88.3/bbl, with premium to Brent shrinking to nil vs. USD1.5/bbl QoQ. Gas realization was at USD9.0/mmbtu vs. USD9.5 NCV APM price, inline. NRL’s basic GRM was stable at USD13.5/bbl with PAT of Rs8.0bn, up 10% QoQ.
Outlook
We have raised our FY23E consol. EPS by 23% on lower opex run-rate and higher NRL GRMs, while we have increased FY24/25E EPS by 8% each on higher crude output and NRL GRMs. We roll over to Mar-24, revising our TP by 7% to Rs290. We retain BUY.
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