Goa Assembly Elections 2022: Numbers game starts again, after predictions of hung assembly

With exit polls predicting a fractured mandate in Goa, giving the Congress a marginal edge over the ruling BJP, the familiar numbers game has started playing out in the state once again.

All permutations and combinations are being worked out ahead of the vote counting scheduled on March 10. Amid the uncertainty, getting to the Raj Bhavan first has assumed importance, given what happened in 2017.

Although the Congress won 17 seats to the BJP’s 13 five years ago, the convention of asking the single largest party to stake its claim and prove its numbers was dispensed with. A delay by the Congress in electing its leader enabled the BJP to cobble up a majority and successfully present its case to the governor.

Read also: Will the pledges and affidavits stop defections in Goa?

This time, the Congress is not taking any chances. In addition to senior AICC observer P Chidambaram and Goa in-charge Dinesh Gundu Rao, the party has sent in legal and political teams including Karnataka Congress president DK Shivakumar, Maharashtra minister Sunil Kedar and Karnataka Congress working president Satish Jarkhioli to assist in quick decision-making and strategy this time.

“What happened in 2017 has happened. This time there will be no lapses. We will be very quick and fast,” Rao told a cable TV channel. “We have got a legal team and a political team of senior people. We are trying to cover all angles because we don’t know how the BJP plays. They will use all the constitutional machinery also – the Central government, the state government, sometimes even the governor's office. We have seen what all they do. So we have to be extra vigilant and extra careful.”

Several meetings at various levels have already been held. All Congress candidates were asked to report to a beach resort outside the capital Panjim on March 8 evening. They will likely not attend counting on March 10, leaving it to their election agents. They could even be moved out of the state if needed.

Although the Congress hasn’t announced its chief ministerial candidate, the party has been projecting former chief minister Digambar Kamat for the post. Defections and an exodus of the party’s senior leadership to the BJP and Trinamool Congress have left the field open for Kamat.

The only potential challenger, Michael Lobo, the canny former BJP minister who switched to the Congress just before the polls, said he was not in the CM race after meeting the Congress central leadership in New Delhi last week.

The Congress has said it is willing to take along all non-BJP parties and independent candidates if it forms the government.

“We are confident of our numbers, but we said we are willing to take the support of all non-BJP parties. After March 10, we will take a call,” Rao added.

The BJP, on the other hand, has been galvanised by exit poll predictions of a fractured mandate and higher-than-expected wins for the party. The ruling party went into the 2022 elections with a huge anti-incumbency sentiment after 10 years at the helm of the state. Chief minister Pramod Sawant met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi and will meet Goa desk in-charge Devendra Fadnavis.

Read also: Exit Poll predicts close contests in Goa, Uttarakhand

Sawant said the BJP would get at least 20 seats of the state assembly’s 40 seats and cross the majority mark of 21 with the support of independents, whom the party has already been in touch with.

Between election day on February 14 and counting on March 10, political parties have been busy assessing their positions and reaching out across party lines and to potential independent winners.

Following a script familiar to Goan politics, everyone is hedging their bets. Independents and smaller parties in Goa have generally gone with whichever party forms the government.

Prominent independent candidates being courted are former BJP chief minister and rebel Laxmikant Parsekar who contested from Mandrem, BJP rebel Utpal Parrikar, indecisive former Congress legislator Alexio Reginald Lourenco, and two others.

The Trinamool Congress’ heavyweight veteran candidate and former chief minister Churchill Alemao and his daughter Valanka have remained tight-lipped about where their support would lie should they win. TMC office bearers including MP Derek O’Brien and Abhishek Banerjee arrived in the state on March 8 evening.

The regional Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party, which is expected to improve its 2017 tally of three seats, said it had met the Congress and had been approached by the BJP as well. Its leader and former deputy chief minister Ramkrishna Sudin Dhavlikar told a media channel that the party would meet the BJP as well, but would take a final decision in consultation with its alliance partner TMC.

Dhavlikar, who has skilfully and consistently played kingmaker, holding cabinet positions steadily in both past BJP and Congress governments alternately since fractured mandates after 1999, said he was not averse to a chance to become “king” in consultation with the TMC.

However, he made it clear that he would prefer a change of leadership in the BJP – a move seen as against current CM Sawant, under whose regime Dhavlikar was dropped from the cabinet and the MGP split in the outgoing assembly. He singled out BJP health minister Vishwajit Rane for praise at one point.

The Aam Aadmi Party, which exit polls project may open its account in Goa with 2-3 seats, is also expected to play a role in government formation.