Bihar Election Result 2020: BJP powers NDA, Left’s resurgence and other key takeaways

File image: JD(U) chief and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) retained power in the state of Bihar on November 11 after prolonged counting of votes amid the novel coronavirus pandemic. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Janata Dal (United) alliance bagged 125 seats in the 243-member Legislative Assembly to hand Chief Minister a fifth term in office.

While the BJP powered NDA to a cliff-hanger victory, it was the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) that emerged as the single-largest party – just like it had in 2015. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB) which comprises Congress and the Left parties, managed to win in 110 constituencies.

Follow LIVE updates of the 2020 Bihar assembly election result here

Here are the key takeaways:

Exit polls got it wrong, again

The outcome of the election was in contrast to what most major exit polls had predicted – a clear win for the MGB. In 2015, exit polls had predicted contrasting results – some putting the NDA ahead, while others placed MGB in the comfortable lead. Thus, some of them were proved wrong.

However, this time, the general direction of most polls was the same. Multiple factors may have contributed to these surveys forecasting the wrong outcome. The NDA did well in seats that went to polls in the second and the third phase, early data suggests. Thus, it is likely that the ruling alliance picked up momentum only as the campaign progressed. The exit polls may not have factored in the huge support the NDA enjoys among women voters. Even if they did, the support may have been underestimated.

BJP was NDA’s engine

The BJP emerged as the largest party within the NDA – or as come call it, the ‘big brother’. The saffron party has never been in this position before. What is interesting is that the BJP was able to achieve this strike rate despite visible anti-incumbency against its ally Nitish Kumar.

PM Modi’s popularity

One reason why voters may have opted for the BJP despite the anti-incumbency against the JD(U), could be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal popularity. A Lokniti-CSDS survey released in October suggested that 61 percent of the respondents said they were satisfied with the Centre’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was despite the nationwide lockdown leading to lakhs of migrants returning to Bihar and economic distress.

Chirag Paswan’s LJP dents JD(U)’s chances

In October, we had asked this question – will Chirag Paswan’s LJP be able to make a dent? It looks like it did. While the LJP ended up winning just one of the 143 seats it contested – mainly against the Janata Dal (United) – it picked up a 5.6 percent vote share, according to data from the Election Commission.

This resulted in the LJP, despite being an NDA constituent at the Centre, successfully cutting into JD(U)’s votes in at least 28 seats.

Of the 43 seats where the JD(U) and the LJP were fighting head-to-head, the JD(U)'s tally from 2015 fell by 28 seats.

Read: Chirag Paswan's LJP wins only one seat, deals a blow to JD(U) tally

RJD remains single-largest party

Former deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD managed to win 75 seats – one more than rival BJP. This makes it the single-largest party in the new Legislative Assembly. This in turn propelled the MGB to a respectable total of 110 in a 243-member assembly.

Congress drags the Mahagathbandhan

Congress, an RJD ally, won just 19 of the 70 seats it contested. The party is now being blamed for dragging down the alliance’s overall tally. In 2015, the Congress had won 27 of the 41 seats it contested as part of the alliance.

Read: Congress drags Mahagathbandhan tally

Resurgence of the Left?

The Bihar election marked the resurgence of the Left in the state with the three of these parties – part of the MGB – winning 16 of the 29 seats they contested.

The tally of the three parties – CPI (M-L), CPM and CPI – was just three short of the Congress. In fact, the Left showed the highest strike rate (55.1 percent) among all parties, according to poll analysts.

Read: Resurgence of the Left with 16 seats in Bihar

Rise of AIMIM and VIP

Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) bagged five assembly seats, topping up the gains it made in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. AIMIM had contested the election as part of the ‘Grand Democratic Secular Front’ along with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and former union minister Upendra Khushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), among other smaller parties.

Mukesh Sahani’s Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP) had stormed out of the Mahagathbandhan ahead of the polls over disagreement of seat sharing. With five seats, VIP may have damaged MGB’s chances in a number of constituencies.

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