OPINION | Takaichi’s massive win sets the stage for a reboot of Japan’s polity

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election win highlights her strong support among conservatives for her leadership, including the younger demographic

On February 8, Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi led the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to one of its biggest victories ever, even breaking the record set by her mentor Shinzo Abe. LDP, with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), secured a two-thirds majority, winning 352 seats (316 for LDP) out of the 465 seats in the lower house (House of Representatives).

This margin of victory is quite unprecedented in Japan, particularly in the backdrop of increasing resentment against the ruling LDP, which has been losing popularity since Abe stepped down as leader.

Victory margin enhances LDP’s policy space

Takaichi’s win gives the party a much-needed boost. The election has shown that her bet on calling a snap poll to consolidate her political position within the party and in the country has paid off. While snap polls generally favours the incumbent, the extent of the victory margin has been surprising.

It has also shown that Japan has reposed faith in the leadership of its first female Prime Minister, proving many naysayers wrong. However, besides strengthening her leadership position, this win also revives the prospects of the LDP, giving the party much needed space to move around, which was earlier constrained by its former coalition partners, Komeito and the JIP.

It also expands Takaichi’s political capital

Takaichi’s election has broken some assumptions. After securing a majority, she now holds the top leadership position in the country, breaking the glass ceiling for women politicians. Her win also makes LDP less dependent on other parties, including her coalition partners, which was a frustrating thing for her earlier.

Now, she has her leg on the accelerator, and can pursue her long pending agenda.

Part of her conservative agenda can be categorised into immediate focus issues, such as tax cuts and long-term objectives, such as revising three national security documents and reforming Japan’s economy.

Transformed political dynamics in Japan

Some observations before the elections pointed to a changing trend in Japanese politics, with younger people showing greater support for Takaichi. While many dismissed the assertion that growing support would translate to more votes, they have been proved wrong. Disproving conventional wisdom, younger people voted for Takaichi in great numbers. This proves that she has successfully brought the younger demographic back into the LDP fold- they were earlier been drifting towards parties like Sanseitō and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP). Her leadership has once again consolidated the LDP’s traditional base.

Besides her win, the elections also underline the dismal state of the Japanese opposition, which was unable to capitalise on the ruling party’s waning popularity. The Centrist Reform Alliance, formed on January 22 just before the elections by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) and Komeito, failed to gain any political traction.

Takaichi’s promises

Takaichi’s election win highlights her strong support among conservatives for her leadership, including the younger demographic. This also means that she will have to deliver on all of her campaign promises. These include addressing severe challenges stemming from inflation, social security, intelligence reforms and defence budgets.

While some measures will be easily passed, such as the enactment of the anti-espionage law, others, however, will require careful management given the state of the economy and market volatility.

Challenges on the fiscal front

One of the complex challenges she will face concerns reducing the tax burden. Immediately after her win, she announced her plans to fulfill one of her cherished goals: suspending the 8 percent food sales tax for two years. To do this, Takaichi aims to overhaul the fiscal policy, which will not be easy considering the fiscal situation and worsening public finances. To fulfil her promise, she has to deal with $32 billion in revenue losses, which will not be easy.

Japan needs constitutional reforms

Her remarkable victory also opens the door to constitutional reforms, which have been difficult for the LDP, given its lack of a majority. Additionally, we will see Japan’s defense modernisation, including increased spending. The focus is to make Japan more self-reliant and less dependent on other countries.

Vindication for Takaichi’s tough-minded foreign policy

On the foreign policy front, Takaichi will use the opportunity to further strengthen its economic and defence ties with the US. Her strong position in the country will also embolden her to advance Shinzo Abe’s legacy and further the cause of a free and open Indo-Pacific.

After this, Takaichi’s next task is to deliver on the promises she made during her meeting with Trump, investing US$ 550 billion in the US across diverse sectors. It is expected that the announcement will be made during her visit to the US on 19th March.

What Takaichi’s victory means for India

For India, the situation will be a mixed bag. Takaichi’s re-election will indeed boost India-Japan cooperation in areas such as defence, technology and supply chain resilience. However, on the issue of immigration, she is expected to tow the conservative line, which will make it difficult for Indians to work in Japan.

Relationship with China will be tense

While Japan’s allies and partners see the win as good news, others, such as China and North Korea, see it as a disappointment. China would see Takaichi’s win as a loss. We can expect bilateral ties between China and Japan to turn tense, given that Takaichi will continue her hard stance against Beijing.

In conclusion, Takaichi's huge win gives her unparalleled dominance in Japanese politics, with no close rivals. This allows her to pursue her objectives in the economic and security domains, domestically and internationally, without significant opposition, something the LDP has not enjoyed for a long time. However, this also means that her responsibility will be immense, with a massive mandate.

Abhishek Sharma is a Junior Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. 

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this organisation