OPINION | Sydney terror strike is India’s wake-up call; beware the lone wolf

The recent attacks in Sydney once again bring to the fore the threats of self-radicalized lone wolves

The recent attacks committed by the father-son duo in Sydney raised alarm bells across the world. It was Australia’s worst mass shooting related incident since the 1996 Port Arthur incident, which claimed 35 lives.

The attacks have gained significant public and media attention in India. We are ourselves recovering from the shock of the Red Fort incident. The subsequent investigations have uncovered the scale of the network and shed light on the phenomenon of ‘White Collor Radicalization’.

Difference between Red Fort and Sydney terror strikes

While both the Red Fort incident and the Sydney Shooting were motivated by the same Islamist ideology, the two represent very different type of threats. While the Red Fort incident is clearly linked to an organized sleeper cell, the case in Sydney appears to be different. Though investigations are still ongoing, early indications suggest that this could be a case of a lone wolf attack.

Acting on their own

Unlike organized sleeper cells, lone wolf attackers often act alone and are not directed by any organized group. They plan and carry out the act on their own, with little organizational involvement. For security agencies different strategies are required to deal with these threats. These include early identification of radicalization and the legal challenges once an individual is identified.

Identifying radicalization early  

A key challenge when it comes to lone wolves is identifying the radicalization at an early stage. Would be lone wolves radicalize alone and often the security agencies come to know of the radicalization after an attack is carried out. Early detection of radicalization is key. This brings with it major challenges. How does one detect early signs of radicalization?

Experts around the world are still struggling to come to come up with an answer. Two avenues hold the key to early detection.

Enhanced surveillance is inevitable

First, is enhanced online surveillance. Lone wolves almost always radicalize online on the dark web. Law enforcement will need to enhance online monitoring particularly among those accessing content that may be deemed ‘sensitive’. Agencies need to have an active plan in monitoring the access and sharing of ‘sensitive’ content.

Secondly, building greater awareness amongst the community to identity individuals at risk of radicalization. Research has shown that while lone wolves do radicalize online, they also exhibit subtle behavioural changes. Reducing social interactions, retreating from friend circles and spending more time in online communities are certain red flags. Sensitization in work places and educational institutions to identify these red flags can help in early detection.

Legal challenges in dealing with lone wolves   

Lone wolves open up a legal grey area, when it comes to preventing attacks. Investigations into the Red Fort module has led to a chain of arrests. Detailed planning and coordination undertaken by sleeper cells often leaves a trail of evidence which can help law enforcement agencies.

With lone wolves working alone or in very small groups (not more than one or two people), such evidence is usually absent. In certain cases where law enforcement has suspected an individual is planning something, there are no legal provisions under which they can arrest them.

An example of this was the 2021 knife attack in Auckland, New Zealand. In the incident, an ISIS inspired attacker stabbed eight shoppers at a supermarket. The suspect had been under the New Zealand Police radar since 2016, when he had shared ISIS inspired content on social media. He was arrested by police multiple times, but served his sentence or was released on bail. While police were aware the suspect was a dangerous individual, he was released from prison just a few months before the attack.

At a press conference, the New Zealand Police Chief highlighted that ‘every legal avenue’ was tried to keep the suspect in jail. Even after his release, the intelligence agencies kept him under continued surveillance.

Where do societies draw the line?

The 2021 attack, ignited a debate in New Zealand about the legal grey areas when it comes to lone wolves. Should the mere possession and sharing of objectionable material come with stricter punishment? Does purchasing weapons like knives/ firearms and other similar weapons by ‘at risk’ individuals mean that the individual is planning to carry out an attack? These are the legal grey areas that need to be addressed with regards to lone wolves. Until these are addressed, law enforcement may have their hands tied in taking legal measures against individuals who are deemed to be ‘at risk’.

The recent attacks in Sydney once again bring to the fore the threats of self-radicalized lone wolves who act outside the structure of formal terrorist organizations.

India will need to take note of what has happened in Sydney and re-work its counter-terror strategy to account for lone wolves. Enhanced online surveillance, community sensitization to the dangers of online radicalization and stronger legislation with regards to possession and sharing of objectionable content are key to tackling the threat of lone wolves.

Over the last decade, Indian agencies have done a remarkable job dealing with organized terrorist groups and sleeper cells. In the recent Red Fort incident, the quick thinking and careful coordination by our agencies was crucial in preventing a major incident. Moving forward, coming up with a detailed strategy to deal with online radicalization will be key to dealing with the emerging threat of lone wolves.

(Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.)