Real test for Shinde Sena-BJP-Ajit Pawar lies in Lok Sabha and Assembly polls

Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde (left) deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis. (PTI File Image)

Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has undoubtedly got a boost with Speaker Rahul Narvekar ruling that it is the legitimate and “real Shiv Sena” commanding the support of the majority of the party’s MLAs.

Uddhav: A Series Of Losses

Previously, Shinde had won the floor test in the assembly and the Election Commission of India granted recognition to his party as the "Shiv Sena."  The ECI also gave the Bow and Arrow election symbol on which the united Shiv Sena had contested several elections.

As expected, a distraught Uddhav Thackeray has questioned the Speaker's decision on 34 petitions, filed by the two rival Shiv Sena factions against each other, seeking the disqualification of 54 MLAs in total arising out of the party’s 2022 split. He has indicated that his faction will move the Supreme Court in this regard though no MLA has been disqualified.

Narvekar's verdict, which had to be delivered because of the Supreme Court's deadline, makes it clear that Shinde's position as CM remains unassailed and he should have no difficulty in remaining in office till the next assembly elections in November this year.

Next For ECI & Narvekar: NCP

BJP's Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP, who is the mastermind behind the splitting of the Shiv Sena led by Thackeray in 2022, should be happy that there is no immediate threat to rock the coalition --though the other deputy chief minister, Ajit Pawar, of the the NCP, is disappointed that Shinde's hands have been strengthened and his plans to play a big role and secure the CM's post  is dashed.

By January 31, Narvekar will also have to decide on the disqualification of Ajit Pawar and his MLAs as mandated by the Supreme Court. If the Speaker rules in favour of Ajit Pawar, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP too will take the matter to the Supreme Court.

READ: Sena vs Sena verdict: All about the dispute and what is at stake

Meanwhile, the ECI is expected to give its verdict on the Pawar vs Pawar battle for the party name and symbol. Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) expects the apex court's verdict on its petition challenging the ECI decision to hand over the symbol of the original Shiv Sena party to Shinde.

Ball Soon In Voters’ Court

Ultimately, all the parties know that, legal battles apart, they will have to face the electorate sooner or later.

If Shinde thinks he has won the battle of legitimacy (unless the apex Court stalls the Speaker's decision), Thackeray hopes to gain from the sympathy factor -- because he sees himself as the rightful heir to the legacy of his father and Sena's founder, Bal Thackeray.

That brings us to the questions regarding the two elections in Maharashtra. Will the Lok Sabha and the assembly elections be held together?

On BJP’s Mind: Early Assembly Polls?

Shinde will have to lead the alliance to win most of the 48 Lok Sabha seats as desired by the BJP. Then only, he can hope to return to power as chief minister. In 2022, Fadnavis helped Shinde split the Shiv Sena. Last year, Fadnavis supported Ajit Pawar in his bid to take over the NCP.  The options for Ajit Pawar remain limited at this stage because he cannot leave the alliance though he will have to bide time for achieving his dream of becoming CM.

Since it is the two splits – one in the Sena and another in the NCP – that has put the BJP-led alliance in a strong position in Maharashtra, the BJP would certainly need to take a call on advancing the assembly polls to be held along with the parliamentary elections. The tenure of the current assembly comes to an end in November — the assembly polls will likely be held in September-October.

The Battle Of Four Marathas

Both the elections are an uphill task for all sides. It will be a mega battle for Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray as they will have to show they command the popular support and not their detractors.

For Pawar, it is also about the continuation of his legacy and domination in state politics. On the other hand, Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde will have to prove they have come on their own. They have to also prove that they are stronger compared to one another.

Maratha Agitation Stokes Social Unrest

Adding to the challenging scenario, is the fight for Maratha reservation in government jobs and education that is bound to generate political heat this year. Activist Manoj Jarange-Patil has threatened a massive march by his supporters to Mumbai from Antarwali Sarati village in Jalna on January 20. He is expected to stage his hunger strike to demand benefits for Marathas by seeking Kunbi sub-caste certificates under the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category.

Opposed to the inclusion of Marathas in the Kunbi category, many OBC outfits have announced a parallel agitation to prevent the state government from accepting Jarange-Patil's demand since it could reduce opportunities available for existing beneficiaries.

The BJP is counting on Shinde to handle a tricky situation before the Lok Sabha polls. It is hoping that the Supreme Court accepts the state's curative petition to reconsider the earlier order to quash the Maratha quota provided by the Devendra Fadnavis-led BJP government. The Court is expected to take a decision in this regard on January 24. Alternatively, the Shinde government may enact a new legislation for the Maratha quota.

Shekhar Iyer was senior associate editor of Hindustan Times and political editor of Deccan Herald. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.