Prigozhin is gone. Putin may target his sympathisers

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) Wagner Boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. (File images)

The expression, “give a long rope,” it would seem, was created for events in Russia’s history. Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner military company, a long rope several months before Wagner soldiers rose in revolt against the Kremlin in June. Prigozhin held on to the rope long enough “to hang himself,” as the second half of the expression goes.

Nearly a century ago, Joseph Stalin, then the Soviet Union’s strongman-in-the-making, gave the pre-eminent of his Bolshevik rivals, Leon Trotsky, a long rope to hang himself. Trotsky was driven into exile, but he gullibly harboured hopes from Mexico City of building Trotskyism into a global revolutionary movement to rival the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU). Somewhat like Prigozhin hoped to expand Wagner’s footprint globally starting with Africa, holding on to the rope that Putin handed him. Trotsky, a proletarian internationalist, met with a violent end in Mexico in 1940, more than a decade after he went to exile, yet was unbowed till his last breath.

The truth about how Prigozhin met with his mid-air fatal end may never be known. Just as the story of his rebellion precisely two months ago is still unfolding, bit by bit. What is clear at the time of writing this, 48 hours after Prigozhin’s private plane crashed into a field near Moscow, is that he was lured by the powers that run the Kremlin establishment into packing about three-quarters of the Embraer Legacy executive jet’s seating capacity with the entire Wagner leadership. Who, but someone destined to hang himself on a borrowed rope, would agree to travel with potential successors and heir-apparent in the same plane?

Fatal Mistake

Because of such a fatal mistake, gone along with Prigozhin are Dmitry Utkin, Wagner’s Operations Commander and Valery Chekalov, the third-in-command and logistics expert. The seven others who perished in the crash are presumed to have been among those whose loyalty to the military company’s founder was unquestioned.

With Prigozhin and his entire senior leadership gone, Wagner, one of the most ferocious and ruthless fighting forces in recent times, belongs entirely to the Kremlin. All along, they were being paid — but surreptitiously — by the Russian government. Putin revealed in July that Wagner was funded by money from the state treasury. Wagner soldiers, in their thousands, swore total loyalty to Putin and Mother Russia after their short-lived rebellion. In any case, they were never against Putin. Prigozhin’s antipathy was to Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of the Russian Army’s General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. It is now entirely up to Putin how he uses Wagner’s substantial assets in future operations, near and far, regionally in Ukraine or Georgia or globally in Africa and beyond.

Mysterious air crashes, like the one which killed Prigozhin on August 23, are rare, but not entirely unheard of. In April 1955, Kashmir Princess, an Air India Lockheed Constellation aircraft on charter with 19 persons, which took off from Hong Kong, exploded and crashed into the South China Sea. It was to have carried Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai for the historic Bandung Afro-Asian Conference, the precursor of the Non-Aligned Movement. Zhou did not board the aircraft and was saved. Nearly three decades after the failed attempt on Zhou’s life, academic research established that Chinese intelligence got wind of a plot to plant a bomb on the Kashmir Princess. They sent a decoy delegation instead of Zhou: all members of the delegation died in the crash.

Putin said about Prigozhin after confirming that the crash left no survivors: “He was a talented person. He made serious mistakes in his life.” For the Russian President, Prigozhin’s death, along with his top lieutenants, has almost brought closure to an unsettling strategic chapter, the Wagner rebellion.

Little Relief For Kyiv

For Ukrainians, who bore the brunt of Wagner’s prowess, first during Russia’s incorporation of Crimea in 2014, and subsequently during the 18-month war, news of Prigozhin’s end was sweet tidings on the eve of their Independence Day. Yet, on the battlefront with Russia, the total decapitation of Wagner’s top leadership will make little difference to Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hyped counter-offensive has faltered. Ominously, weariness with the long war is setting in among voters in the United States of America who entered their presidential election season with the first nationally televised debate on August 23 among Republican aspirants for the White House.

US President Joe Biden, unlike several of his predecessors, is not known for rib-tickling quips. A memorable exception was Biden’s reference to the frequent description of Prigozhin in the US media as “Putin’s chef.” The President wondered in that context: “If I were he (Putin), I would be careful what I ate.”

One of the finest Kremlinologists in the US Foreign Service is Russian-speaking William Burns, former Ambassador to Russia and currently Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Burns, who knows Putin well, was prophetic when he said a month ago while attending the highly acclaimed Aspen Security Forum. “What we are seeing is a very complicated dance between Prigozhin and Putin. I think Putin is someone who generally thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold. So, he is going to try to settle the situation. In my experience, Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback. So, I would be surprised if Prigozhin escapes further retribution.” As the world watched this week, Prigozhin did not, indeed, escape retribution.

Some minor footwork in the “complicated dance” is yet to be played on the dance floor, which has become treacherous. Prigozhin has sympathisers in the top echelons of the Russian Army and the security establishment. There will be some bloodletting as Putin weeds them out.

KP Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.