‘Peter Thiel would support Donald Trump if he runs in 2024, but…’

Much is known about billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel, and yet he seems to evoke so much curiosity and interest. Over the years he has become an idol for aspiring entrepreneurs, and at the same time his politics has intrigued many.

The Contrarian by Max Chafkin, Bloomberg Businessweek’s features editor, offers an unparalleled glimpse into the enigmatic world of Thiel, and gives a sneak peek into a United States where old allies business and politics are joined at the table by technology (Silicon Valley to be more precise).

In an interview to Moneycontrol, Chafkin talks about Thiel (of course), US politics, former US President Donald Trump, and Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, among others.

Excerpts of the interview:

Cherian: How would you describe Peter Thiel, and his school of thought?

Chafkin: I think the easiest way to think about — and the reason I gave the book this title — it is that he is a contrarian. He's somebody is drawn to positions and points of view when they are in direct opposition to what he sees as the establishment view.

Maybe “compelled to” these positions is a better way to put it; it's almost as if he can't help himself. Contrarianism is an investment strategy — its how he decides which companies to back — but for Thiel it’s also a life philosophy.

He feels that there is something wrong, morally almost, in following the herd. I talk about this in the book, but this can sometimes lead him into trouble — either because the herd often gets it right, or because contrarianism can lead you to break the rules, or even to behave unethically — and I think Thiel has fallen into those traps at times.

Cherian: Thiel, a self-proclaimed libertarian, believes in minimal government, and yet his political leanings, and actions seem to aid authoritarian, and discriminatory schools of thought. Your thoughts on it?

Chafkin: Thiel sometimes says he's a libertarian, and he certainly has libertarian inclinations — he doesn't like paying taxes, for instance — but I don't think he's a libertarian in any kind of conventional sense. He's very hawkish on immigration, is extremely conservative on cultural issues, and seemed comfortable with Donald Trump's authoritarian impulses.

He has talked about the litigation against Gawker as supporting privacy, but in his business career he's done more to destroy privacy than almost anyone — helping to create Facebook, a massive collector and broker of our private information, and starting Palantir, a gigantic government surveillance company. Thiel's politics are in a lot of ways Far Right and authoritarian, not libertarian.

Cherian: What is your take on the ties between Thiel and Trump? Thiel made contributions to Trump’s first campaign — do you think he will bet on the former US President for 2024?

Chafkin: Thiel backed Trump for two reasons I think. The first was a calculation about Trump's prospects. Thiel, I think, saw Trump as a good investment. Trump's campaign was struggling to attract mainstream business support; Thiel provided that in spades.

His donation in October, just after the Access Hollywood tape leaked (when Trump seemed to endorse sexual assault), helped turn the tide, and save Trump's candidacy. Thiel got his money's worth on the donation, I would argue. He was welcomed into Trump's inner circle, and enjoyed great access to the White House, for himself, and for his companies.

The second reason was ideological. Thiel believes that ‘political correctness is out of control, and seems to think that de facto prohibitions on racist or sexist speech are huge problems in our society. Trump ran as a cultural reactionary and made that the centrepiece of his candidacy. I think they connected on that level.

My guess is that Thiel would support Trump if he runs in 2024, but I doubt Trump is his preferred candidate at this point. I imagine he'd rather see Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, or even somebody like Tucker Carlson, run. That said, if it's Trump versus Biden, he will bet on Trump.

Max Chafkin is a features editor and a tech reporter at Bloomberg Businessweek

Cherian: What do you think will be Thiel’s long term effect on US politics?

Chafkin: I think Thiel is playing a role in the Trumpist wing of the Republican Party similar to the one the Koch brothers played in the Republican Party in the ’80s and ’90s. The Kochs ran this huge industrial conglomerate, Koch Industries, and basically developed a political project to bend the party to their libertarian worldview, which helped their business, generating further profits to feed the political project.

Thiel is doing the same thing, but his business is post-industrial (that is, tech) and he's aiming for the Far-Right wing of the Republican Party. We've already seen him make two $10 million donations to Far-Right candidates for the Senate midterm in 2022, and I expect there will be others.

Cherian: Can both Big Tech and democracies exist, and thrive, in a symbiotic way? Or is this a long-drawn skirmish?

Chafkin: As somebody who believes that democracy is a good thing I really hope they can — and indeed I believe that they must. I don't think Thiel agrees though. He has said he is sceptical of democracy, and he seems to favour governments ceding their power, essentially, to tech billionaires, and allowing them to build the future.

I think this is the most dangerous and troubling part of Thiel's ideology and the part that both fans and his critics should reckon with. We're already seeing that big tech companies have anti-democratic impulses. Those come, in part, from Thiel, I would argue, and I think preservation of democracy is going to require that the companies reform from within or be forced to reform from without. We're seeing this happen around the world as regulators take a closer look at the behaviour of Facebook and its peers. I expect it will continue.

Cherian: Your book gives glimpses about Thiel’s views on China; what do you think are his views about India?

Chafkin: Thiel is very hawkish on China — though it’s hard to know if that's a true ideological position or just the result of the fact that he doesn't have many investments there, and because he is financially tied with the US Department of Defence. (That is to say: A cold war with China would be lucrative for Thiel).

I don't know what he thinks about India, though a member of Thiel's circle, Balaji Srinivasan, who was one of his picks to run the Food and Drug Administration under Trump, has relocated to India (and Singapore), and sees a lot of growth potential, apparently.

Cherian: Imagine Thiel, Trump, Musk and Zuckerberg sitting around a table in a bar…what would they talk about?

Chafkin: Ha! I love this question. Four of the biggest personalities in America. Well: Musk and Trump are the big talkers, so I would guess they would be sort of compete with one another to get a word in. Zuckerberg and Thiel are the quiet ones. They're more calculating, and they're also allies in a sense since Thiel is on the board of Facebook.

My guess is Zuckerberg and Thiel would work together and would be trying to steer the conversation towards their own interests, subtly trying to manipulate Trump. Musk would be out for himself, ally to none, and operating less strategically.

That's how the conversation would go, but I have no idea what they'd talk about. Probably whatever Trump saw on Fox News that morning.