The Maoists are in decline but it would be a mistake to declare premature victory

The recent killings have yet again sparked a debate amidst claims of both the Centre and the State government. (File image)

The recent killings of three Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers in South Bastar of Chhattisgarh has caused a furor in political circles. While the issue of people’s safety was raised in the Lok Sabha during the Zero Hour, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, expressing grief over the incidents, asked the state DGP to convene a meeting with the political party functionaries to sensitise them about the security protocols to be followed in the Left Wing Extremism (LWE) areas to ensure proper security.

Earlier in April 2019, one BJP MLA and his four security personnel (including a driver) were killed in a blast by the Maoists during the parliamentary election campaign in Dantewada. In May 2013, many senior Congress leaders were killed along with their security personnel (total 28 including two who succumbed later) in a landmine blast and firing during the Parivartan Yatra near Jheeram Ghati in Bastar.

The recent killings have yet again sparked a debate amidst claims of both the Centre and the State government, that the situation in the LWE affected areas has improved due to their policy of direct action and development. Here is a reality check.

Decline Of The Maoists

It is a fact that the LWE affected area has gradually decreased in the last decade. Despite some local protests (fueled by the Maoists) at some forward locations, many new security camps have been opened up in South Bastar in the form of development centres.

The villagers have been extended the benefits of various schemes, such as PDS outlets, anganwadi, a health centre, a bank or a post office branch. The economic activity around these centres has increased. No less than 260 abandoned schools have been reopened.

While responding to a parliamentary question, the Lok Sabha was recently informed that the Maoist incidents in the LWE affected states have come down from 2,213 in 2010 to 509 in 2021 and total killings from 1,005 to 147 in the same period. Similarly, the number of districts which reported Maoist violence has come down from 96 (465 police stations) in 2010 to 46 (191 police stations) in 2021.

The number of Security Related Expenditure (SRE) districts which get financial assistance from the central government, have come down from 126 to 90 in 2018 and to a further 70 in 2021. About 90 per cent of incidents were reported from the most LWE affected districts whose number has also come down from 35 to 30 in 2018, to a further 25 in 2021 out of which 7 are in Chhattisgarh.

On the development side, the road network has expanded and mobile connectivity improved. Bank and post office branches have been opened to step-up financial inclusion. The critical infrastructure has improved with the help of the 100 per cent centrally funded Special Central Assistance (SCA) scheme.

Leadership Vaccuum

The Maoists in all their (top level) Central Committee meetings since their third meeting in 2010, have admitted that their base area has diminished and people were withering away from the revolution. Many of their top leaders (M Lakshman Rao aka Ganapathi and K Sudharshan aka Anand) have become inactive either on account of their age or various ailments.

A few others (B Satwaji aka  Sudhakar and J Narasimha Reddy aka Jampanna) have either surrendered or been killed (Koteshar Rao aka Kishanji and Milind Teltumbde aka Deepak) in encounters. The “leadership training programme” run by the Maoists to safeguard their top leadership has not borne any fruits.

However, despite left wing extremism sliding to a low ebb, the security forces cannot afford slackness. Whereas the trend of surrender continues in all ranks, the reports of some fresh recruitment during COVID times cannot be overlooked. They are still able to extort large amount of money and collect levy from contractors who work in affected areas. The Maoists have locally-developed Barrel Grenade Launchers to enhance their killing power.

Still A Potent Force

They still retain the capability to launch major attacks at will, particularly during the Tactical Counter Offensive Campaign period, in which their smaller formations congregate to form bigger commands. Though their base area has shrunk with the expansion of security camps, certain pockets of security vacuum still exist in South Bastar; the area of movement of the PLGA Battalion. Abujhmaad of Chhattisgarh still remains the favourite hideout of most senior cadres, particularly the members of the Central Regional Bureau.

Similarly, though the Maoists suffered a major setback in Garhchiroli (Maharashtra) in November 2021 in which 26 cadres including the central committee member Milind Teltumbde was killed in exchange of fire, their plan to further expand the newly established  Maharashtra-Madhya Pradesh-Chhattisgarh (MMC) Special Zone might have only paused for some time.

It still requires close scrutiny and a constant follow-up in the area of expansion up to the hills of Amarkantak of Madhya Pradesh and the adjoining Mungeli district of Chhattisgarh. The joint anti-Maoist operations with bordering states and the Central Armed Police Forces must not abate.

The past record of the proscribed CPI(Maoist) is a grim reminder that as and when the elections draw nearer, they become more aggressive. They not only boycott every election, but also try to disrupt them using all tools of terror. They have not shown mercy even to the polling parties and ambulances.

They are not averse to killing civilians and branding them as police informers. It will therefore be an error to write them off at this stage despite most indicators of their decline. Rather, the security forces must pull up their socks to meet any challenge, and continue to march on till the tables are totally turned.

RK Vij is a former Special Director General of Police of Chhattisgarh. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.