Farm laws repealed: It’s game wide open in Punjab

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Political parties by and large assume that voters have short memories, and it may be true in some cases.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is hoping that the farmers will soften their stand against it after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's announcement of the repeal of three farm laws.

The farmers have mainly targeted the BJP during their year-long agitation to an extent that its leaders could not enter their constituencies in Punjab, Haryana, and Western Uttar Pradesh.

The UP Factor

While the situation may improve a little bit, the farmers’ agitation is far from over. The Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM), an umbrella organisation of 40 farmers' unions, has issued a fresh list of demands, including a statutory guarantee of minimum support price (MSP), and the withdrawal of the Electricity Amendment Bill, to end their protests, and go back to their homes.

Of all the states, Punjab has been the most affected one due to the stir. A majority of the 670 farmers who lost their lives during the agitation come from Punjab, and the wounds are still fresh. In that scenario, how will the repeal of farm laws impact the upcoming assembly elections in the border state?

A large number of people in Punjab are convinced that the laws are being withdrawn primarily because of the emerging political situation in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP has much bigger stakes in UP than in Punjab where it had been riding piggyback on the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) for years before the two parted ways in September 2020 over the farm laws.

Hopefully Captain

The BJP is not completely out of the woods in Punjab as the farmers are still indifferent to it, and there is a huge trust deficit between the two sides. This time, it will in all likelihood strike a deal with former chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh, who earlier this month quit the Congress and launched his own political outfit, the Punjab Lok Congress.

Though Singh wanted the BJP to give him full credit for repeal of the farm laws, he still hopes that a tie-up with the saffron party will help in consolidation of a large section of Hindus and a major chunk of Jat Sikhs in favour of the alliance.

The Hindus are said to be wary of Punjab Congress President Navjot Singh Sidhu’s fresh overtures to Pakistan and radical Sikhs, the Jat Sikhs are purportedly upset with the Congress for naming Charanjit Singh Channi, a Dalit, as Chief Minister.

If Singh is able to tap this resentment, he could cut into the Congress’ votes.

Common Man Channi

At the same time, Singh’s exit has come as a blessing in disguise for the Congress. To a certain extent it has negated the anti-incumbency against its government given that Singh was widely held responsible not only by political rivals of the Congress but even Sidhu for the alleged inaction on the issues of sacrilege of the Guru Granth Sahib, and Punjab’s drug menace.

Channi was not the first choice of the Congress leadership but his appointment by default has helped in consolidation of the Dalit vote. Apart from a majority of Dalits rallying behind him, he has also emerged as the ‘common man’s’ Chief Minister as evident from the responses he has been able to elicit from the people of Punjab to his various moves. With 32 percent of its population Dalit, Channi could be vital in the Congress beating anti-incumbency in Punjab.

The tough call for the Congress will be whether to name him the chief ministerial candidate and antagonise Sidhu, or keep the suspense till the elections are over and not give a handle to its opponents who will then describe Channi a ‘night watchman’.

Tactical Shifts

That said, Channi’s appointment has forced the SAD and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to revise their poll strategy against the Congress.

The AAP, which was the second-largest party in the 2017 assembly elections, has suffered a few setbacks since then with some of its leaders having jumped ship.

While there is certainly ground support for Bhagwant Mann, AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is keeping his cards close to his chest as far as naming the party’s chief ministerial candidate is concerned. All eyes are on Kejriwal to project a credible face who could propel the AAP to emerge as a strong alternative.

Earlier this month AAP had a rare setback when its sitting MLA Rupinder Kaur Rubby quit the party and joined the Congress. While the AAP has tried to label it a non-issue, elected representative leaving a party is not a good sign.

Unlike 2017 when some of his moves cost the AAP dearly, Kejriwal is treading a cautious path this time, and is trying to woo different sections of society with his poll promises, including pilgrimage to holy places for people of the respective religions apart from low-cost electricity rates.

The SAD has decided to go back to its Panthic agenda, and is banking on the Scheduled Castes after its alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to regain some of its lost ground — but that has been neutralised by the Channi-Sidhu combine.

As of now, the game appears wide open in Punjab, with a slight edge to the Congress.

Aurangzeb Naqshbandi is a senior journalist who has been covering the Congress for 15 years, and is currently associated with Pixstory.

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.