Emmanuel Macron attempts a course correction on NATO and Ukraine

Emmanuel Macron has apologised for not listening to his allies, but are they any more ready to listen to him?

Emmanuel Macron’s love of sweeping, De Gaulle-style rhetoric has gotten the French leader into hot water with his allies — whether it was declaring NATO “brain dead,” arguing the need to not “humiliate” Russia after the Ukraine invasion, or casting Europeans as American “vassals.”

Which is perhaps why Macron is now trying a more conciliatory tack. As Ukraine prepares a counteroffensive to regain occupied territories, the French leader has voiced support for the country’s bid to eventually join both a reformed European Union and NATO — something unthinkable a few years ago. Brain dead no longer, NATO had been jolted to life by Vladimir Putin’s shock therapy, he said; EU enlargement, a process that in 2019 he warned would weaken the bloc, was now a question of security and stability. Macron even added in his speech in Bratislava last week that France should have listened more to Eastern European countries on Russia, delivering a subtle dig at his predecessors’ dismissal of Atlanticist voices in the region.

Firing off a big speech to make up for past big speeches is, of course, pure Macron. This one is worth heeding, though: Beyond the message sent to Putin that Ukraine is part of the EU’s future, Macron’s mea culpa has wider aims. It extends a hand to Eastern and Baltic states that have viewed Paris as an unreliable security partner, building more bridges inside the EU at a time when recession is now adding to Germany’s headaches. And with US politicians seemingly more focused on China than Ukraine, Macron clearly sees a chance to elbow his way into a leadership role.

“This was a necessary step to take, a way to tell France’s allies that we understand, we’ve made mistakes,” says Camille Grand, former senior NATO official and currently at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who flagged an upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius as the next milestone. “The question now is whether Macron can keep getting the message across in the months to come.”

Yet this is where the challenges begin.

On EU enlargement, there is no real consensus on exactly how to reform a process that has lost credibility among member states — including France. While the EU’s post-Cold War eastward expansion is seen as an economic success, it has failed to stop a populist “illiberal wave” in the region and has created new obstacles to decision-making and integration. Ideas are floating around over how to solve the nightmare of required unanimous voting and how to make the membership process more gradual, such as offering more bite-size rewards for reforms such as single-market access. But even this is likely to stir resistance — in Poland, for instance, farmers have protested an influx of cheap grain from neighboring war-torn Ukraine.

Another is the US. While the French president is keen to point out his ambitions for European defense are not designed to compete with NATO commitments, he is still pushing for self-reliance in a number of areas: “Build European, buy European, innovate European.” While highlighting France’s glide path to hitting NATO defense spending targets of 2 percent of gross domestic product, Macron also berated fellow EU countries that have chosen to “massively” buy non-European (ie, American) weapons. That’s fair enough, but it’s a lonely hill to die on: Even if the EU takes steps toward new initiatives like common ammunition procurement, it’s hardly a cry being taken up by many member states. Macron is right to warn that reliance on the US may look unwise if the next election brings Donald Trump back to the White House, but few seem to be listening — Poland’s Mateusz Morawiecki has said Republicans cooling on support for Kyiv are simply playing a “poker game.”

And perhaps the biggest challenge ahead is strategic vision. Poland’s Morawiecki gave a speech in March setting out his own distinctly un-Macronian vision for Europe, pitting the people against elites and bashing Brussels for meddling in issues like rule of law. That lingering echo of Brexit-style resistance against a European “super-state” doesn’t bode well for deeper integration. And, closer to home for Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last month also laid out the groundwork for an enlarged bloc — but gave short shrift to Macronian preoccupations of sovereignty and made no mention of the Macron-led 44-country European Political Community. Macron has apologised for not listening to his allies, but are they any more ready to listen to him?

Macron is right to try a new approach, and the gospel of a more self-reliant Europe is worth preaching. But even a message as simple and popular as supporting Ukraine may not be enough to truly galvanise Europe or propel Macron’s agenda forward. If Paris fails to back up words with action or real diplomatic investment — which wouldn’t be the first time — this may not be the last mea culpa Macron offers his partners.

Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the European Union and France. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.

Credit: Bloomberg