OPINION | Does the Iranian regime’s survival depend on a strategic reset?

No options left to survive. Compromise may be inevitable

Iran is experiencing violent internal turbulence marked by widespread anti-government protests across the country that have entered their third week and resulted in reportedly over 500 deaths. With the internet shut down and limited foreign media access, credible information is scant. More than 40 security personnel have also been killed and this is an indicator of the intensity of the citizen protest which has been steadily escalating.

The protests began on Sunday (December 28) over currency collapse and inflation (>50%), compounded by food shortages.  The Iranian rial plunged to over 1.3 million to the US dollar (on Dec 15), leading to a bitter quip in the Tehran bazaar that Iranians are now billionaires - but they cannot buy even one loaf of bread with their worthless currency.

The 2022 protests against ideological inflexibility

Observers describe the current protests as the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic's regime since the September 2022 Mahsa Amini uprising- triggered by the arrest and subsequent death in police custody of the 22-year woman who refused to conform to the inflexible hijab rules.

The regime cracked down on the nation-wide, multi-month protests by women in which universities and schools were actively involved. For the first time, chants like "Death to the Dictator"   were raised and human rights groups have estimated that more than 500 people were killed and thousands arrested/executed in 2022.

This marked the first time that the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and his clerical coterie backed by the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) had been denounced in this manner and it was evident that younger Iranians were increasingly disenchanted with the uncompromising ideological certitude that shaped governance and social norms.

The root of the current protest

A quarter of Iran’s 92 million citizens are in the 15-29 age bracket. Lack of employment, rampant corruption and a tottering economy reeling under US led sanctions have added to the collective frustration and anger, against a regime pre-occupied with its own theological fervour and anti-American/Israel rhetoric since 1979. At that time, 47 years ago the rial-dollar rate was 70-to-1 and upper class Iranian women were among the most progressive in all of Asia.

The clerical regime that came to power in 1979 after overthrowing the monarchy of the Shah of Iran (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi) has faced six major protests and prevailed, often by the use of harsh state power.  But the 2026 protests are potentially the largest since the 1979 Revolution.

Is there a readymade alternative to the current regime?

Amid the ongoing nationwide protests Reza Pahlavi has emerged as a central opposition voice. Protesters in many cities have chanted slogans supporting him and he has issued messages urging sustained action, coordination to seize public spaces and preparation for a transition. He has signalled readiness to return to Iran if the regime falls, though he reiterates that the people should decide the new governance format and the role of the monarchy.

The US and Israel (emboldened by the swift military victory of June 2025) have voiced their support for the Iranian people and US President Donald Trump has threatened to attack the Tehran regime if lethal force is used to quell the uprising. In a January 2 post Trump warned: "If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go."

Will the protests force the regime into a strategic reset?

The current protests represent a major legitimacy crisis for the Ayatollah regime, fuelled by economic despair and crony corruption, further exacerbated by colossal military and foreign policy failures. While the clerical establishment and IRGC remain in control and have historically crushed unrest through overwhelming force, the current scale, geographic breadth, cross-class participation (including bazaar strikes) and timing (post-military setbacks) make suppression more challenging and costly.

Repression may buy a short-term lifeline for the regime but it risks further escalation or elite fractures without addressing root causes:  economy, employment and equitable governance.  Experts view the current churn as the Iranian regime's weakest moment in decades, though it's too early to predict regime collapse.

Stop press:

In a recent development, President Trump has claimed Iran "reached out" and "wants to negotiate." He described this as Iran being "tired of being beat up by the United States" and suggested a meeting could be set up soon.

It may be inferred that though the US is enhancing its military presence in the region, this signal represents a pragmatic shift in Washington’s posture:  from the "maximum pressure" campaign, to one that seeks to avoid escalation even while curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional influence.

However, this social media post has been received with skepticism, as Iran has not publicly confirmed the Trump outreach and US threats of military strikes remain on the table if the Tehran regime kills more protesters.

But if a modus-vivendi is indeed arrived at, it may be presumed that Iran will have to make concessions on its nuclear enrichment program, missile development and the support to terror groups such as the Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi rebels. This in turn would be resisted by the hardliners in Iran and bitter internal contestation can be expected.

Overall, while the US has extended an olive branch, deep mistrust and Iran's red lines (nuclear enrichment) have stalled progress. The protests add urgency but a meaningful breakthrough remains uncertain without mutual compromises.

(Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.)