BJP Ally-Hunt Explained: Ajit Pawar turns NDA’s 5% point deficit in Maharashtra to a 10% point advantage

The split in NCP and Ajit Pawar joining NDA has given a ten percentage point advantage over MVA based on the 2019 vote share.

The split in NCP and Ajit Pawar joining the Bharatiya Janata Party-led ministry in Maharashtra is the beginning of a series of steps by the saffron party to bolster NDA ahead of the Mahabharat in 2024. This is BJP’s counter to the Opposition uniting against it.

As a PDA (the Opposition coalition’s tentative name) takes shape, with Congress emboldened after Karnataka victory, and initial surveys suggesting a decline in the NDA tally, BJP’s hunt for new allies has begun. This is also to make up for the loss of prominent allies in Maharashtra, Bihar and Punjab.

Lose Some, Gain Some

Three influential parties – Shiv Sena, JD(U) and Shiromani Akali Dal – have left the NDA over the past few years. These three parties won 36 seats in 2019 with a 4.2 percent vote share.

Though a faction led by Eknath Shinde of the Shiv Sena is backing the BJP, almost half of the vote share is expected to be still with the Uddhav Thackeray faction. These exits could reduce NDA’s 2019 vote share by 2.5 percentage points to 42.5 percent in 2024 (adjusted). The recent Ajit Pawar’s exit could reduce UPA’s vote share by around 1 percentage points to 26 percent in 2024 (adjusted).

A recent ETG survey for Lok Sabha 2024 shows NDA winning 285-325 seats with 38.08 percent vote share (-7 percent) while UPA winning 111-149 seats with 28.82 percent (+2 percent). At the mid-point of projections NDA at 305 is seen losing 48 seats and UPA at 130 is seen gaining 39 seats.

BJP’s Three Key States

The crucial states for BJP and NDA are Uttar Pradesh (64/80), Maharashtra (41/48) and Bihar (39/40) from where it won 144 seats (41 percent of its total tally) in 2019. It won 86 percent of the seats on offer in these three states.

The opposition alliance MVA (Sena Uddhav + INC + NCP) in Maharashtra (prior to the current drama in Pawar’s party) and MGB (JDU + RJD + INC + Left) in Bihar were strong and posed a serious challenge to BJP’s quest to repeat its 2019 performance.

Conscious of the challenge, BJP split NCP and is now likely to induct SBSP (OP Rajbhar’s party in UP) and HAM plus Chirag Paswan in Bihar. The Maharashtra acquisition is expected to more than offset the anticipated loss of vote share to Uddhav Thackeray’s party, if we base our analysis on 2019 Lok Sabha poll data.

The SBSP induction aims to repeat the 2014 performance (73/80 in UP). Chirag and Jiten Ram Manjhi’s HAM may not compensate JDU’s exit, but every vote counts.

Back-channel talks are proceeding with Akali Dal and TDP in Punjab and Andhra. Speculations are also rife about JD(S) and RLD joining the NDA in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh.

Close Fight In Bihar

With JDU’s exit, NDA has weakened in Bihar. The ETG survey shows NDA winning 22-24 seats in the state as against 39 (along with JDU) in 2019. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) which could win only one seat is expected to win 16-18 seats with Nitish Kumar’s entry.

CSDS post-poll surveys indicated that NDA allies received 25 percent of their votes due to the Modi factor. Making adjustments for this along with other changes like exit of Manjhi’s HAM from the Nitish-Tejashwi ministry, merger of all VIP MLAs in BJP, Upendra Kushwaha becoming increasingly irrelevant, the Bihar scenario would look like the table below if we rely on 2019 Lok Sabha election voteshare.

Ajit Changes Maha Equation

With Eknath Shinde and now Ajit Pawar’s recent revolt, BJP has managed to weaken the MVA.

The ETG survey had shown NDA winning 24-28 seats in the state as against 41 (this was before the Pawar vs Pawar showdown in NCP) in 2019. The UPA, which could win only five seats, was notching 18-22 seats thanks to the boost from Uddhav’s entry.

ETG had projected that the two states of Maharashtra and Bihar alone would lead to loss of 30-odd seats for the NDA.

My calculations based on 2019 Lok Sabha data suggest MVA was ahead in Maharashtra by a significant five percentage points prior to the strike on NCP. By splitting NCP and bringing Ajit Pawar over, NDA now has a ten percentage point advantage over MVA based on the 2019 vote share.

Nationally, the gharwapsi of SBSP, Akali Dal, TDP and entry of NCP (Ajit Pawar), RLD, JDS could add another 4-4.5 percentage point vote share to NDA, thus handsomely making up for the exit of JDU and Uddhav Thackeray.

Ultimately, the idea is not just to bolster the NDA vote share. BJP is also sending a message that it is a nationally accepted force with allies in all parts of the country. This negates opposition’s charge that BJP has been left alone with no partner because of its policies.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.