Bengal Panchayat Polls: A TMC sweep leaves troubling questions for BJP in its strongholds

The TMC has either bagged or is ahead in more than 70 percent of the seats in all tiers of village council polls, namely Gram Panchayat (GP), Panchayat Samiti and Zila Parishad.

Despite steady pressure from opposition parties, judiciary, central government, a section of media and the governor, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is comfortably ahead in West Bengal’s panchayat/village council elections. In fact – early on Wednesday – TMC has bagged or was ahead in more than 70 percent of the seats in all tiers of village council polls, namely Gram Panchayat (GP), Panchayat Samiti and Zila Parishad. The total seats are about 74,000 and with trends or results of 64,000 available, TMC is ahead or has won 46,350 seats (72 percent).

There is little doubt that the 2023 poll was marred by violence – as it was in the past – and at least 20 persons were killed on the polling day and following 48 hours. Many of them belonged  to the ruling party. Yet violence was less than in 2018 or 2013. In 2018, opposition could not field candidates in an unprecedented 34 percent of seats, while it was 10.66 percent in 2013, noted Biswanath Chakravarty, an acclaimed poll data analyst, in his published papers.

In 2023, TMC won nearly 10 percent of seats unopposed indicating that the incumbent party was challenged by three key opposition blocs – Bharatiya Janata Party, Left-Congress alliance and minority-driven Indian Secular Front (ISF) – in only 90 percent of the seats.

TMC: Rural Thumbs-Up

Nearly 70 percent of Bengal’s population reside in rural areas. A 65-70 percent seat share in village council polls underlines Mamata Banerjee’s deputy Abhishek’s success as he led the campaign. With this result,Abhishek will consolidate his position in the party.

Secondly, TMC’s vote share was 48 percent in the Assembly polls (2021) and 43 percent in Lok Sabha (2019). In the 2013 and 2018 Panchayat polls, TMC respectively got 58 and 56 percent votes. The 2023 panchayat poll result indicates there will be a substantial jump in TMC’s vote share compared to 2019 and 2021. If the vote share has increased, and 35-year-old Abhishek can maintain the momentum over the next ten months, TMC may emerge as a key national player after the Lok Sabha polls.

However, BJP has a counter argument voiced by its dynamic Malda MLA Sreerupa Mitra Chaudhury: “Panchayat polls are about local interests and issues. Lok Sabha votes are a nationwide poll and elector’s opinions differ. Moreover, the state’s failure to conduct the Panchayat polls properly scared the voters, which would be absent in Lok Sabha … (even) if BJP appears weak now, it would not be so in the national polls.” This is by and large the argument of the opposition which has failed to unsettle TMC in the Panchayat poll.

BJP Slipping In Strongholds?

Nonetheless, BJP is losing its strongholds in Bengal. TMC’s ally Anit Thapa’s Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha (GPM) made inroads in Darjeeling defeating BJP-backed United Gorkha Alliance. Among other strongholds, BJP is on the backfoot in the huge Namasudra community dominated districts of North 24 and South 24 Parganas and Nadia districts.

The interpretation: BJP’s failure to appease the powerful “Matua” sect of the Namasudras – who predominantly arrived as refugees from Bangladesh – by implementing Citizenship Amendment Act (2019) has prompted the vote transfer from BJP to other parties. BJP also suffered reverses – according to trends till Wednesday morning – in western tribal districts of Jhargram, Purulia, Bankura and West Midnapore. BJP’s success in 2019 and 2021 was to a good extent driven from tribal areas.

BJP has around 15 percent cumulative share of seats in all three tiers, at the time of publishing. The party won or was leading in about 9,500 seats out of 64,000 till morning. This is a clear dip compared to the 2021 Assembly poll when BJP got 26 percent of seats (and 38 percent of votes), though BJP has done better than its 2018 panchayat poll performance when it won 11 percent of the seats.

The obvious question is who has usurped BJP’s votes from the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 assembly polls, considering no major uptick in Left-Congress’ seats or votes, so far. The possible answer – it has been guzzled by TMC. Neither the Left-Congress, nor BJP has significantly improved its tally – as of now – in the Panchayat poll (there were around 59,000 seats in the 2018 panchayat polls and 74,000 now, which would explain the absolute seat number increases by various parties).

TMC’s success has largely been attributed to – as in previous years – to its umpteen welfare schemes. BJP argues that most of the schemes are supported by the central government and yet the schemes – boosted by a reasonably efficient delivery mechanism – continue to provide robust dividends for Mamata.

Minority Worries For TMC

On Tuesday, following an off-the-record conversation a Muslim spokesperson of the TMC told this writer that ISF is “an emerging risk” for his party. “ISF got eight GPs in South 24 Parganas” – a TMC stronghold with 35 percent Muslim population – “and this will trouble the TMC leadership,” he said.

In some of the Muslim pockets – from north to south Bengal – a Left-Congress-ISG combination has defeated TMC which had indeed triggered a lot of violence in the minority pockets. It is possibly a reason why the majority of the people killed are also Muslims and yet the party was hit in the minority areas.

A tiny swing in minority votes in forthcoming polls will damage TMC deeply. But – simultaneously – any visible appeasement policy to woo the Muslims may consolidate the Hindus. The immediate challenge would be to strike a balance without displeasing the communities – a task indeed for Abhishek and team.

Suvojit Bagchi is a Kolkata-based journalist who previously worked with Ananda Bazar Patrika, BBC World Service and The Hindu. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.