OPINION | Battle lines drawn in Bihar as campaigning enters the last phase

bihar-Elections

Elections in Bihar, one of India’s most politically conscious states, will be held next month. Some 10 days ahead of the first of the two-phase polling on November 6, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), or the Grand Alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal finally got its act together.

Now, whether a national party in the Indian National Congress, which is part of the multi-party formation, was coaxed or coerced into projecting young Tejashwi Yadav as the chief ministerial candidate, the unvarnished fact is that the alliance made a public declaration of its political intent with an add-on. The Vikasheel Insaan Party's Chief, Mukesh Sahani, would be the deputy.

Clarity in leadership and an alternative to the incumbent

A combination of a Yadav at the helm and Sahani, from the Extreme Backward Class of Mallah (oarsman), along with the Congress, the Left Parties, and Indian Inclusive Alliance, offers to the 7.42 crore electorate of Bihar an alternative to the two-decade old governing coalition headed by Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance. The NDA consists of the Janata Dal (United), the Bharatiya Janata Party, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Hindustan Awam Morcha of Union Minister Jitin Ram Majhi.

A third competitor in JSP

This time around, the nascent Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) formed by poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor is testing political waters in his home state, with a promise of an intrinsically different third option against the two established formations.

Battle lines are now drawn and between now and November 14, when the votes for 243 seats will be counted, people of Bihar would have spoken with those residing in 122 constituencies exercising their democratic right on November 11 in the second and final phase of voting.

SIR controversies in the run-up to the election

These elections are being held on a revised voter list determined after the Election Commission of India carried out a Special Intensive Revision earlier this year. The work led to controversy with opposition parties exercised over the timeframe and manner in which it was conducted.

The final list removed some 3.66 lakh ineligible voters based on its 2003 database and added 21.53 lakh voters. Both Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi conducted public meetings and awareness rallies against the move, charging it as an attempt to deny voters of targeted groups. The claim was rejected by the ECI, while the BJP termed it a case of sour grapes.

Creating narrative and perceptions

At the start lines, both formations have come up with broad themes to attract the voters on issues with the MGB constituents promising to build a Bihar with one of the largest population of young voters below 25 years jobs in the state and check the need to migrate to distant places for earning livelihood. RJD reminded the coalition is committed to social equity on the basis of population.

The BJP and its partners are making all-out efforts to rekindle memories of the ‘Jungle Raj’ era during 1990-2005, when the RJD-led government's dubious record of misgovernance, corruption, and abject failure on the law and order front.

Questions about the NDA’s CM candidate

With Tejashwi Yadav as its chosen one to lead the coalition on being voted to power, the MGB dared the BJP to declare that incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will continue. The tactics come in the wake of reports during the past few months raising questions on the health of the CM.

Throwing down the gauntlet, the Congress claimed it was not good enough to state that the NDA was entering the poll fray under the leadership of the  JD(U).  Congress leader and former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot reminded the BJP that after adopting a similar stance in Maharashtra, the coalition denied then Chief Minister Eknath Shinde the post and chose to install Devendra Fadnavis after the last assembly polls.

While choosing to avoid any direct response, the JD(U)-BJP leaders also point to the serious charges of corruption young Tejashwi Yadav is facing in two cases – the Land for Jobs and IRCTC – in the courts, along with other members of the Yadav family.

Leadership tugs

There is a perception the NDA had  little option but to back Nitish Kumar who proved to enjoy support among the Extremely Backward Classes (Ati Pichhda) and women, half of the population. Whether the allies will re-elect the incumbent Chief Minister in the event of the results coming in their favour remains hanging.

For the present, the BJP does not have a formidable line of leadership who can be seen as a credible alternative to Kumar with the moniker of ‘‘Susashan Babu” (Good Governance Chief).

The governing alliance partner LJP (RV) helmed by Union Minister Chirag Paswan is straining to enter the leadership race. His ambition to spread the influence of his party led to the party contesting elections independently in 2020 and damaged the JD(U).

Both the major formations have a fair share of problems and irritants like rebels cropping up to enter the electoral fray on either side. While the BJP made overtures to iron out the wrinkles, the delay in MGB pact resulted in a few seats where the allies remained in the contest.

On the other hand, collectively the NDA and the MGB have to gear up to face a new challenger -- Prashant Kishor’s JSP. Having held a series of padyatras during the last one year in Bihar.

As a professional strategist, Kishor possesses a deep understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the majority of the parties in Bihar. Having tendered professional advice to many of these parties, the JSP has the potential to spoil the broth of either formation.

Over to the matdata (voter) of Bihar to discern and decide whom to trust with their future.