Assam Polls | Can NDA repeat its 2016 performance?

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Mixed signals are emanating from Assam ahead of the assembly polls. This is unusual for this Northeastern state if previous elections are evaluated.

Since 1977, the outcome of the state elections had been by and large predictable; occasionally the Lok Sabha polls have thrown unexpected results. The uncertainty this time around has been triggered by a three-cornered contest involving 14 parties and the spate of resignations by candidates denied tickets.

Sample this: Sum Ronghang, a current minister who was among the 11 sitting party legislators, joined the Congress after he was denied a ticket by the Bharatiya Janata party(BJP); the Left parties are unhappy with the Congress over the sharing of seats; and, there is no consensus between the newly-formed Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Raijor Dal over many seats. In Golaghat, the candidates are the same as in the election of 2016 but they have switched parties.

Assam is bracing for the most interesting assembly polls ever held in the state. The ruling BJP’s aim of increasing the tally from 87 seats to 100 seats, from a total of 126 seats in the assembly, could be difficult. Like in the previous polls, the national party’s focus is on eastern Assam which has a majority of Assamese, tea tribes and Bengali Hindu communities; here it is expected to perform well. But the region west of Guwahati could be tougher like the Bengali-dominated Barak Valley where the Congress-led alliance has an edge.

In the 2016 assembly polls, the BJP’s allies — the AGP and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) — contributed 26 of the 87 seats that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won. Now the BPF has joined hands with the Congress-led alliance of seven parties, which also includes the Badruddin Ajmal-ledAll India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).The AGP’s base has eroded after the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act agitation that swept large parts of Assam in 2019.

Above all, there is little that the BJP can showcase as achievement during the five years of its rule. This could be a reason why Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speeches have failed to elicit the response in the manner they did during the election campaign in 2016.Has the party high command realised that there is a danger in keeping Sonowal at the helm of affairs? Is this why many of the candidates supported by Sonowal have failed to secure tickets?

The performance by the AJP-Raijor Dal combine, which is backed by the All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) and the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti, remains a matter of speculation. However, it will cut into the vote banks of both the BJP- and Congress-led alliances. Besides the constituencies dominated by the Assamese in eastern Assam, the combine has also succeeded to attract sizeable crowds at its rallies held in areas dominated by Bengal-origin Muslims in western Assam.

Faced with multiple challenges, the BJP is banking on polarisation, as was evident in a comment made by Assam BJP leader and finance minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The strategy had paid dividends to the party during the 2019 general elections. Helping the party is the Congress’ alliance with the AIUDF which the BJP leaders have constantly underscored at the rallies. On February 25 while speaking at a rally in Borduwa, Home Minister Amit Shah said that it was the Congress’ “lust for power” that led to the pre-poll alliance with the AIUDF.

However, polarisation may not yield results in Assam’s eastern districts as there is no considerable presence of Bengal-origin Muslims. Here, the BJP is relying more on the TINA factor and change of candidates in constituencies where the Congress and the AJP-Raijor Dal combine are perceived to have taken a lead in the recent weeks.

The disadvantages notwithstanding, the BJP could still have an edge over its rivals. Its presence in the grassroots is the strongest, which is helped by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s network developed over the past many decades. The party is also flush with funds which could give it an advantage in case there is a hung assembly. The Congress is reeling under a crisis of funds that has certainly impacted the quality of its campaigning.