A turning point for the dollar is coming
The short- and long-term prospects of the currency are at odds
Food prices and inflation expectations: Should the RBI cut rates?
RBI’s model is undergirded by two key assumptions. It accurately measures inflation expectations which, in turn, influence wage adjustments. The central bank’s measure of inflation expectations is out of sync with reality, undermining the accuracy of its approach. Keeping rates high anticipating that expectations will rise seems too harsh on growth and employment
Premiumisation theme in consumption faces a few key risks
Even as consumption growth has slowed down, well-off consumers continue to shop till they drop. Companies and investors have noticed this trend but the possibility of higher tax rates on such goods is a risk to be watched out for
Quick Take | PMI data for November signals to the MPC that growth is fine, but core inflation is rising
The PMI data for November, which track month-on-month changes, are very upbeat and in marked contrast to the Q2 GDP numbers
Is the recent rally in cement stocks justified?
Cement prices in November were still nearly 7 per cent below the year-ago period, on an all-India average basis.
Why is Deepinder Goyal being pilloried for something entire industries are doing?
What Goyal has done is to simply throw a harsh spotlight on the reality of the Indian job market today, on the power asymmetry between jobseekers and jobgivers
Women’s silent revolution in Bihar through microfinance
Jeevika ran several capacity-building programs for rural women, which helped them acquire various farm and non-farm-related skills that also increased their managerial abilities.
Revamping Urban Local Bodies: Addressing financial and governance challenges
India’s municipal corporations face severe financial and governance issues, relying heavily on state and central grants. With limited revenue, inadequate staffing, and delayed elections, they struggle to provide essential services. A comprehensive overhaul is needed to empower local governments, ensure fiscal autonomy, and improve service delivery
Chart of the Day: How GDP, inflation numbers responded to RBI rate actions over years
RBI has been struggling to find the right balance in terms of rate actions. Data suggests growth has taken a hit whenever RBI held rates high for too long
A yen for carry trades that never left the markets is vexing everyone
Yen carry trades are back but is another unwinding around the corner?
The paradox of decentralisation in the crypto ecosystem
Crypto's promise of decentralisation has led to centralisation due to technical and human factors. Centralised intermediaries provide security, simplify usage, and help regulators, making centralisation key for mainstream adoption while ensuring consumer protection and governance
Why America’s economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
The country’s outperformance is rooted in long-term productivity growth that is the envy of the developed world. Could Trump’s policies endanger its lead?
RBI’s misdirected regulatory approach
Cracking down on NBFCs disbursing small loans on the grounds they are charging usurious rates only pushes borrowers towards informal markets where rates are higher. Instead of removing barriers towards the flow of credit to the bottom of the pyramid, there are hurdles placed in the name of systemic stability when this risk can be tackled through other means
GST’s revenue neutral rate needs to go higher
Over the years, multiple slabs and rate cuts in the name of rationalisation have made the tax structure complicated and hampered collections. It’s time for a change
Chart of the Day: Steady capacity additions to help IndiGo maintain leadership in Indian aviation market
Peer Air India group is facing longer delays in aircraft deliveries from Boeing.
A CRR cut is more probable this week than a rate cut
The RBI now has a ‘growth’ problem rather than an ‘inflation problem’. It cannot ignore the growth slowdown. At the same time, the MPC needs to time the rate cut carefully
A great moderation awaits NBFCs as funding growth from banks hits 3-year low
NBFCs are risk takers but riskier lending is under the regulatory glare now.
Why interest rates should go up, not down
Lowering rates may help consumers and companies but it will hurt savers. If inflation-adjusted returns are not lucrative enough, money will flow into riskier avenues and even out of the country
Jamaat-e-Islami's controversial legacy and its role in Bangladesh’s political landscape
Jamaat-e-Islami, involved in war crimes during Bangladesh's 1971 Liberation War, continues to influence political discourse. Despite efforts to rebrand as ‘moderate’, its refusal to apologise and links to radical groups raise concerns, challenging Bangladesh’s democratic values and sovereignty
GDP growth and inflation will trend downwards in FY25
Agricultural growth and higher government consumption spending means private consumption will support growth this fiscal. However, weak urban demand and elevated food inflation will limit its overall impact, leading to a slowdown in the pace of economic momentum. RBI may cut interest rates only towards end of the financial year
The mother of all bubbles
The US has never been so overhyped, relative to the rest of the world
With China in play, India's economic leverage on Bangladesh faces challenge
Sanghnomics: In August, violence against Hindus in Bangladesh under Muhammad Yunus' government sparked concerns in India. Despite strong economic ties, India must carefully navigate sanctions, as China's influence grows in Bangladesh
The Eastern Window: Global markets bear the brunt of overcapacity in Chinese manufacturing
The U.S. and E.U. are creating additional trade barriers for China. The move may hurt developing countries like India as China may resort to heavy dumping of goods on India and other developing countries
What were the drivers of growth in Q2?
Out of the GVA growth of 5.6 percent in Q2, the contribution of services was 4.1 percentage points. The rest of the economy contributed the balance 1.5 percentage points. That’s how lopsided growth was in Q2
Q2 miracle: when growth slumped, the unemployment rate came down
While real GDP growth fell from 6.8 percent in Q1, FY 25 to 5.4 percent in Q2, the urban unemployment rate improved from 6.6 percent to 6.4 percent, according to the quarterly PLFS survey
