Negative spillover effect of Press Note 3 persists
Press Note 3 was introduced in 2020 to intensify scrutiny on FDI sourced from countries sharing a land border with India, which really means China. It did not define a key concept, ‘beneficial ownership’. The lack of clarity around what constitutes ‘beneficial ownership’ has created roadblocks for many private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) firms based out of Europe and USA.
Chart of the Day| Premium hotels rush to add capacity as the sector defies consumption slowdown
The healthy demand uptick is leading to pick-up in new room supply and commencement of deferred projects in the last 24-30 months
Will Trump tariff tremor quicken India-UK FTA?
An FTA, which has been in the works for long, is a win-win for both India and Britain and can enhance New Delhi’s heft in world trade order
The stark inequalities in consumption: What the numbers reveal
The top 5 percent of the urban population spend Rs 3,064 per head per month on consumer durables while someone in the top 40-50 percent bracket spends just Rs 758 -- a fourfold difference, according to the Survey on Household Consumption Expenditure in India, 2023-24
Budget push for MSMEs would work, but safeguards are key
Credit push of the budget comes when lenders and banking regulator are growing increasingly uneasy towards MSMEs
Weight loss drug opportunity is increasingly coming into focus for Indian pharma
Companies are preparing to launch the generic version of Semaglutide in India next year
Progressive and balanced Budget effectively catering to diverse economic sectors while maintaining fiscal prudence, says Vikas Khemani
In terms of fiscal management, the budget aligns well with expectations, adhering to fiscal prudence, which is commendable.
A fine balance budget, marking the start of the second growth engine, says Hiren Ved
In sum, the budget has taken a bet on both capex and consumption, firing to take India to the vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047!
Despite its laudable intent, One Nation One Subscription is not a silver bullet
The laudable intent of the One Nation One Subscription notwithstanding, it may not solve the problem of knowledge creation for educational institutions in tier 2 and tier 3 cities of India. A holistic approach for such institutions is required.
Google goes heavy on investment but light on detail
The absence of guidance on what tech companies are buying as they raise their bets on AI begins to stretch credulity
Quick Take: January PMI shows slower growth, bolsters case for a rate cut on Friday
If the PMI and the corporate sector indicate a slowdown, then conditions in the rest of the economy must be even worse. Moreover, given the uncertainties in the external sector, there is all the more reason for monetary policy to give a boost to the domestic economy
Role of P2P lending platforms in empowering the underserved
Peer-to-peer lending (P2PL) offers a promising solution to India’s gendered credit gap. By bypassing traditional banking barriers, P2PL provides flexible, accessible loans tailored to rural women entrepreneurs, fostering financial inclusion and supporting their business growth and resilience
India is late to the LLM party, but can it still make a splash?
What is needed is a clear headed approach to AI research and innovation. Resources are definitely needed, but it may be possible to be competitive with millions, rather than requiring billions
Why order flow challenges could mount for India’s capital goods firms
Recent feedback from the stakeholders in roads, metro rail and water segments indicates that while the bid pipeline is strong, the pace of project awards is slowing
The Budget’s focus on growth, fiscal prudence is bullish for equities
The Budget’s focus on boosting both consumption and capex is supportive for Indian equities, especially for healthcare, financials and consumer-related sectors
Underlying economic data, not forecasting errors, blight investment decisions
RBI is reportedly using machine learning tools to enhance its inflation forecasting, the bedrock of monetary policy decisions. The problem is larger, with data fed into GDP estimates dogged by shortcomings. There’s a strong case to invest more in the collection of primary data which drive policy decisions in public sector and investment decisions in private sector
Budget’s most far-reaching change is in tariff rationalization
Inverted customs duty structures have been one of the biggest impediments to competitiveness of Indian exporters. Imposed mostly ad-hoc, in response to specific demands for import protection, the duty inversions have adversely affected prospects. The Budget might have done for Indian exports what trade policy hasn’t been able to
FM's fiscal prudence path, rate cut hopes to cushion upside risks to bond yields
The bond market has enough domestic demand for resilience
Budget, Economic Survey again bat for greater control over regulators
Oversight of regulatory institutions has not been bipartisan but controlled by the ruling administration
Chart of the Day | Easing price trends set stage for a Friday rate cut
Food inflation, the villain in India’s inflation story, has finally begun to ease, although it is too early to say whether the decline is deceptive.
STT @ Rs 78,000 crore: Is govt expecting massive buoyancy in the markets in FY26?
The target of Rs 78,000 crore of STT collection in Budget seems ambitious as the government assumes Nominal GDP growth of 10.1 percent for FY26.
Union Budget 2025 positive for five sectors, says Unmesh Sharma of HDFC Securities
The HDFC Securities Institutional Research team thinks that the budget is positive for consumer discretionary and staples, Automobiles, Real estate, Agriculture.
Markets underestimating ‘The Ripple Effect’ of Budget 2025, says Nimesh Chandan of Bajaj Finserv AMC
All in all, this budget is one of the best budgets presented. It will set a wave of positive ripples in the economy and will benefit many businesses, said Nimesh Chandan.
Trump ask of NATO members will trip on budget constraints
Trump may have a legitimate grievance in nudging the NATO countries to open their coffers for defence. In 2024, all NATO countries spent $1185 billion (estimated). Out of this, the US alone spent $755 billion. Trump’s call for raising defence budget amongst NATO partner countries may remain a ‘cherished dream’. At best, these countries may agree for more defence burden sharing in future conflict situations
Budget 2025: Extravagant in rhetoric, eminent in direction
When a larger share of the income pie goes to labour – rather than capital -- consumption will get a sustained boost, and complement the tax breaks given to the middle class. The former is structural, the latter a one-time measure. The budget made a reassuring beginning by focusing on labour-intensive sectors to boost employment
