'Worst-case scenario': What Bangladesh unrest & Sheikh Hasina's dramatic exit mean for India

Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's dramatic exit from the violence-hit country has expectedly sparked concerns in India, with New Delhi now closely monitoring the situation.

Hasina is reportedly seeking asylum in London but has first landed in India after escaping a civil war-like situation in Bangladesh, where hundreds of angry protesters stormed her Dhaka residence. The Bangladesh army has taken over the reins of the country for now and has appealed the protesters to scale down violence.

Meanwhile, Hasina was received at the Hindon airbase by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and is being moved to a safe location amid soaring tensions in her country. External affairs minister S Jaishankar has met Prime Minister Narendra Modi to brief him about the situation.

The political future of Hasina now remains uncertain, especially after her son Sajeeb Wazed Joy said that she is "extremely disappointed" with the recent developments in the country despite having turned Bangladesh's economy around. He asserted that she will not return to politics.

As for Bangladesh, an interim government will be formed in Dhaka to handle the precarious situation and quell the unrest.

The hopes will also be on the army to maintain peace in the country and ensure a smooth transition of power. The Army chief said he had met political leaders and told them the military would take over responsibility for law and order.

But Hasina's resignation will certainly create a sense of uncertainty and void in the region, especially in the near term.

The concerns in India over the looming political instability in Bangladesh are widely expected since Dhaka has been a long-standing ally of New Delhi, especially under Hasina.

After Hasina's recent victory in the controversial Bangaldesh election in January 2024, India congratulated her and recounted a spurt in bilateral interactions between the two countries in the first half of the year.

Over the years, India and Bangladesh have enjoyed a strong and evolving partnership.

When Sheikh Hasina came to power in 2009, the relationship between the two nations deepened considerably.

Hasina’s tenure saw a substantial improvement in bilateral ties, including resolving longstanding border issues and curbing anti-Indian activities within Bangladesh.

Her administration was instrumental in enhancing connectivity and trade, and India appreciated her sensitivity to New Delhi's security concerns.

Bilateral relationship also reached new heights under Hasina's leadership, with India viewing her as a reliable ally in the strategically crucial neighborhood.

A case in point is the Teesta river project. A few weeks ago, Hasina said that it wants India to take up the massive project despite receiving bids from China.

Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, a US think-tank, told BBC that Hasina's resignation are "close to a worst-case scenario for India".

He said that New Delhi has long held a view that any alternative to Hasina and her party, the Awami League, will be a threat to Indian interests.

"Beyond that, India will have to watch and wait nervously. It may support free and fair elections in the interest of stability, but it doesn’t want the BNP - even if it has grown weak and divided - to return. Delhi likely wouldn’t oppose a long period of interim rule for that reason," he said.

Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, a former Indian Foreign Service (IFS) officer, told NDTV that instability in Bangladesh has clear security imperatives too.

"The influx of refugees escaping violence can become a problem. External powers inimical to India's interests may gain ground, which will have to be factored in," he said.

Former foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said that a "peaceful and stable" Bangladesh is in India's interests. Though he added that there is not much India can do for now except wait and watch. "We have to tighten control on our borders. Anything else would be construed as interference," he told BBC.

India is yet to officially make any comment on the developments in Bangladesh. It is expected that Jaishankar will make a statement in Parliament on Tuesday on the situation in the neighbouring country.