West Bengal elections: Signs of churn in Mamata Banerjee's biggest vote bank as minority unity talks gather pace

Mamata Banerjee, Trinamool Congress chief and West Bengal CM. (File: PTI)

• Muslim-led outfits may form a front, risking TMC's minority vote stronghold
• Minority vote split may impact TMC margins in Malda, Murshidabad districts.
• Talks ongoing among ISF, JUP, and others; impact on TMC's dominance uncertain

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With new Muslim-led outfits exploring a united front ahead of the West Bengal Assembly elections, the ruling Trinamool Congress faces the risk of a split in key districts where minority consolidation has powered its dominance since 2011.

Suspended Trinamool Congress (TMC) MLA Humayun Kabir, the man behind the construction of a Babri Masjid replica along National Highway 12 in Beldanga, Murshidabad, who has since floated a new outfit by the name of Janata Unnayan Party (JUP), is now openly calling on Muslims in West Bengal to break away from the ruling party.

With Assembly elections in West Bengal barely weeks away, talks among Muslim-led political outfits to form a minority front that could challenge the TMC's near-monopoly over the community's vote have intensified. While the formation of such a front may not lead to the dethroning of Mamata Banerjee, it could complicate her path to a fourth consecutive term by eroding margins in districts that have been the TMC's backbone.

Momentum around the formation of a minority-led front picked up after Indian Secular Front (ISF) MLA Naushad Siddiqui issued a call on January 17 for an alliance against both the TMC and the BJP. The ISF, rooted in the influential Furfura Sharif shrine in Hooghly, is currently the only non-TMC, non-BJP force with a presence in the Assembly. Kabir quickly endorsed the idea, saying unity was essential to counter what he described as the TMC's "tokenism" towards minorities.

The Indian Express cited sources to say that discussions are underway between the ISF, Kabir's JUP and several smaller outfits, including the SDPI, the political wing of the banned Popular Front of India. The JUP has also sent feelers to the Left and Congress, though there is uncertainty over whether either will formally join the initiative. In Malda, Kabir has warned that the front may go ahead without the Congress if talks stall.

While still fluid, the very existence of these negotiations marks a shift in Bengal politics. For over a decade, Mamata Banerjee has successfully positioned the TMC as the natural home of Muslim voters, combining welfare politics with strong anti-BJP messaging. That understanding could potentially come under threat.

Muslims account for around 27 per cent of West Bengal's population, according to the 2011 Census, but their political weight is far more concentrated in specific regions. Districts such as Murshidabad, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, Birbhum, North 24 Parganas and South 24 Parganas contain dozens of constituencies where minority voters can decisively swing outcomes.

It is precisely these belts that delivered the TMC its landslide victories. In Malda, the party's vote share jumped from 8 per cent in 2011 to 53 per cent in 2021. In Murshidabad, it surged from 6 per cent to 54 per cent over the same period. Of the 34 Assembly seats across the two districts, the TMC currently holds 28. In Uttar Dinajpur, the party controls four of six seats, with one BJP MLA defecting to the TMC after the 2021 polls.

A fragmented minority vote, even by a few percentage points, could change seat outcomes in these high-stakes districts, particularly in tight triangular contests involving the BJP, where Muslim voters form between 35 and 65 per cent of the electorate and margins in 2021 were narrow.

In Murshidabad (22 seats) and Malda (12 seats), for instance, where Muslims account for 63 per cent and 51 per cent of the population respectively, the TMC won 28 of 34 seats, but in at least 11 constituencies the victory margin was under 10,000 votes, making them highly sensitive to even a 5-7 per cent vote split.

In Uttar Dinajpur (9 seats), where Muslims form around 49 per cent of the population, the TMC holds four seats and the BJP two, with three seats decided by margins below 8,000 votes, placing the district in the high-risk category.

South 24 Parganas (31 seats) and North 24 Parganas (33 seats), where Muslims form 35–38 per cent of the population, fall in the medium-risk zone, with the TMC dominant but vulnerable in urban and semi-urban pockets such as Bhangar, Basirhat and Deganga, where the ISF has organisational presence. Birbhum (11 seats), despite being Mamata Banerjee's home district, also presents limited risk in two seats with Muslim populations above 40 per cent and past margins under 12,000 votes.

Taken together, these belts account for nearly 100 of Bengal's 294 Assembly seats, underlining why even a modest erosion of minority consolidation could complicate the TMC's seat conversion rate without necessarily threatening its overall lead.

The push for a minority front has been fuelled by a series of developments that have created unease among sections of Muslim voters. Protests erupted last year after 37 groups were removed from the OBC list and 34 others reclassified, prompting the state to order a fresh survey. Discontent also surfaced when the TMC implemented amendments to the Waqf law despite earlier resistance.

The return of TMC Rajya Sabha MP Mausam Benazir Noor to the Congress has revived memories of the Congress's once-dominant hold over Malda under her uncle A B A Ghani Khan Choudhury, adding to speculation that the TMC may face a more competitive fight in the district this time.

Despite these undercurrents, dislodging the TMC from its minority base remains a formidable task. For many Muslim voters, Mamata Banerjee is still seen as the strongest bulwark against the BJP, especially amid controversies over citizenship, detention of Bengali-speaking migrants in other states and the ongoing Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls, which the TMC has positioned as disenfranchisement.

The party's aggressive positioning on these issues has reinforced its image as a protector of minority interests, particularly in border districts like Malda and Murshidabad.

Yet, for the first time since 2011, Mamata Banerjee may have to fight not just the BJP and the Left-Congress alliance, but also emerging challengers from within her most loyal support base. While the translation and the impact of the current minority unity talks into a potent electoral force remains uncertain, the churn itself serves as a warning sign for a party that has long taken this vote for granted.