Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde, and Sena legacy: Why BMC polls in Jan can make or break political fortunes  

Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde.

After a delay of nearly three years, Maharashtra’s long-pending civic body elections are finally set to take place. The State Election Commission has announced polling on January 15 for 29 municipal corporations, 32 zilla parishads and 336 panchayat samitis, with counting scheduled for January 16.

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election is shaping up as a high-stakes showdown, especially as it marks the first civic battle since the Shiv Sena split and a direct face-off between the Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde factions.

This election is being widely seen as a test of who truly controls the Shiv Sena’s political legacy. For Uddhav Thackeray, a strong showing in Mumbai is crucial to reclaim relevance after the 2022 split and to reinforce the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (UBT) faction’s claim as the ideological heir of Bal Thackeray.

For Eknath Shinde, victory in the BMC would validate his breakaway faction’s alliance with the BJP and help cement his hold over the Sena’s traditional base in the city. With Mumbai long regarded as the Sena’s political heartland, the outcome is expected to shape not just civic control but the future trajectory of the party itself.

The BMC is not just India’s richest municipal body but also Asia’s wealthiest civic corporation. Its estimated budget for 2025–26 is Rs 74,427 crore, with projected expenditure of Rs 43,162 crore, nearly 58 per cent of which is earmarked for development works.

The State Election Commission has announced that a total of 2,869 seats will be available in the upcoming municipal corporation elections. The nomination process will begin on December 23 and continue until December 30.

The elections will be held across 29 civic bodies, including the BMC, with around 3.48 crore voters eligible to cast their ballots in major urban centres. Key corporations going to polls include Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Nashik, Nagpur and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar.

The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is aiming to present a united front in Mumbai. The BJP, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP have agreed to contest the BMC polls together, setting up coordination committees to manage seat-sharing and iron out internal differences.

Ties within the alliance had been strained in recent months, particularly after the Shinde-led Sena accused BJP leaders of encouraging defections in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Despite this, alliance leaders believe contesting together significantly improves their chances of capturing the BMC.

For the BJP, the election remains unfinished business. In 2017, it won 82 of the 227 seats, just two fewer than the undivided Shiv Sena. This time, the party will contest fewer seats to accommodate allies, with the Shiv Sena seeking around 90 to 100 seats, according to BJP leaders.

The Mahayuti formula, however, will not be replicated everywhere. In Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, the BJP and Ajit Pawar’s NCP will contest separately. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has described this as a “friendly fight”, arguing that a joint contest would benefit a third party.

On the opposition side, one of the most notable developments is the growing proximity between Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena leader Raj Thackeray. Once bitter rivals, the cousins now appear aligned by a shared concern that losing Mumbai would deal a serious blow to the Thackeray political legacy.

For Uddhav Thackeray, the BMC election is being viewed as a critical opportunity to reassert political relevance. For Raj Thackeray, the contest is being framed as a fight to protect Marathi identity, with the MNS positioning itself as the custodian of Mumbai’s linguistic and cultural character.

The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi, however, appears under strain. The Congress has indicated it may contest the BMC polls alone if the MNS is included in the alliance, citing concerns about alienating minorities, Dalits and north Indian voters.

While a solo Congress strategy risks splitting opposition votes, data from the 2024 assembly elections suggests that without MNS support, the opposition may struggle to cross the majority mark of 114 seats in the 227-member BMC, potentially giving the Mahayuti a structural advantage.

According to reports, Congress leaders have held discussions with Sharad Pawar and leaders of the NCP (SP) on maintaining the opposition coalition's integrity, although no final decision has been announced.

The elections come amid a growing political row over alleged “vote chori”, with opposition parties claiming electoral rolls in Mumbai have been inflated with duplicate and fictitious voters.

The BMC has begun cleaning up the voters’ list, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) has launched a parallel, ground-level verification drive across all 227 wards. Party leaders claim their workers have identified thousands of bogus entries and allege that many long-time residents, particularly Marathi voters, were wrongly marked as duplicates.