The Bengal gamble: Can Humayun Kabir beat Mamata Banerjee at her own game?

Former TMC MLA Humayun Kabir speaks to a gathering after laying foundation stone for a mosque, modelled on Ayodhya's Babri Masjid, at Rejinagar in West Bengal's Murshidabad district

The formation of a new political party by an estranged leader once part of the ruling party in a state does not usually draw much attention. But, when a new outfit is floated by a member of a minority community (Muslims constitute around 27 per cent of West Bengal's population) with sizeable influence over the state's politics just months ahead of a crucial Assembly election, the development is bound to invite much political scrutiny.

West Bengal MLA Humayun Kabir on Monday floated a new outfit, Janata Unnayan Party, days after he was suspended by the TMC for laying the foundation stone for a Babri-style mosque in Murshidabad district. Addressing a public meeting in Beladanga, Kabir said his mission is to oust Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee from power in the Assembly polls, due in less than six months.

With the naming of his party, there is growing speculation whether he would be successful in splitting the Muslim vote in Bengal. If yes, the outcome could spell doom for Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress, which owes much of its tenure in power to the support of Muslims.

Political observers are of the view that a section of the Muslim electorate disgruntled with the TMC may lend its support to the new outfit floated by Kabir. His audacious plan to rebuild the Babri Masjid and form a new political front aims to capture the discontent simmering among the Muslim electorate, a demographic that has historically leaned towards the Trinamool under Mamata Banerjee's leadership. Kabir's formal announcement of a new outfit has made the rank and file of Trinamool uneasy, given that the BJP is breathing down its neck.

Kabir, the MLA of Bharatpur, named eight candidates that his new party will field in the 2026 Assembly elections, and said he would himself contest from Rejinagar and Beldanga, both seats won by the TMC in 2021. He launched his party's manifesto and said his first preference for poll symbol would be 'table', on which he had contested the 2016 state polls as an Independent, provided he receives the Election Commission's nod for it, while 'twin roses' will be his second choice.

The Bharatpur MLA's actions attempt to resurrect sentiments similar to those observed in Bihar, where AIMIM's Asaduddin Owaisi challenged the RJD in the Seemanchal region and secured five seats in 2020 and 2025. Much like Owaisi's foray, Kabir's entry highlights a localised yet profound transformation, aiming to redefine the nexus between identity and representation in West Bengal.

Muslims make up 27 per cent of West Bengal's population, according to the 2011 census. They live mostly in the north Bengal districts of Uttar Dinajpur (49.9 per cent share of population) and Malda (51.3 per cent), the central Bengal district of Murshidabad (66.3 per cent) and the south Bengal districts of Birbhum (37 per cent), South 24-Parganas (35.6 per cent), Nadia (26.8 per cent) and North 24-Parganas (25.8 per cent). Murshidabad’s 22 Assembly seats.

In 2015, he was "expelled" by the TMC for six years for criticising the CM and alleging that she was trying to make her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, the "king". He contested the 2016 assembly elections as an Independent from the Rejinagar seat, but lost to Congress. He subsequently joined the Congress, which then had a huge presence in the district, but switched to the BJP ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP fielded him as its candidate in the Murshidabad Lok Sabha seat, and managed to secure the third spot after the TMC and Congress nominees. He then returned to the TMC and, in 2021, became the MLA of Bharatpur.