Rising Chinese imports may trigger more trade curbs in India: S&P Global

For India, rising Chinese imports are putting domestic manufacturing firms under pressure and therefore could lead to more protective measures, the report said.

• Chinese exports to emerging Asia hit by domestic and global pressures.
• India and Southeast Asia impose duties to curb rising Chinese imports
• India's trade deficit with China doubled to $115 billion between 2020 and 2025

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China’s exports to emerging Asia markets, including India and other southeast Asian countries is likely to face stiff resistance over both domestic and international pressures, a report by S&P Global Ratings said on January 14.

The report said the Chinese exports to emerging Asian economies have risen in the last few years, affecting domestic markets and the global economic landscape. According to the report, several Asian countries re-export Chinese goods to other nations, including the US. In several cases, domestic companies often struggle to compete with cheaper Chinese goods. In addition, the US has imposed stiff tariff on countries that are re-routing Chinese goods. Based on these factors, the report said the shipments from the world’s second largest economy is unlikely to grow as fast as it did recently.

Pressure on Indian manufacturing

For India, rising Chinese imports are putting domestic manufacturing firms under pressure and therefore could lead to more protective measures, the report said.

“India has in recent years already introduced several measures to slow imports from China (and other sources). Steps include “safeguarding duties" such as a December 2025 tariff on certain steel products,” the report said.

However, India is not alone in taking such steps against Chinese goods. Several southeast Asian nations have imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel. Indonesia has forced upon auch duties on several other products as well, while many others have brought in a custom duty on low-value parcels with tightened inspection protocols, according to the report.

“These international responses are likely to limit the extent to which China's exports to Asian can expand in coming years. We expect Chinese exporters to continue to push to expand shipments to Asian EMs, building on the success this strategy has had in recent years. However, the rising resistance against these exports increases the likelihood of more material restrictive policy measures to rein them in,” the ratings agency said.

Growing imports

The report showed that import from China between November 2023 to November 2025 jumped 13 to 15 percent in India and Malaysia, while it surged between 30 and 38 percent in Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.

Notably, in 2025, the shipments zoomed between 75 percent and 110 percent from 2020 in the above mentioned five nations. However, Philippines was the only major Asian EM outlier.

In comparison, imports from mainland China in the Asia-Pacific developed countries have not changed significantly.

India’s trade deficit

Despite New Delhi’s growing emphasis on local manufacturing and exports, shipments to China have hardly moved compared to where they were five years ago. However, imports from China have almost doubled in the said period.

Moreover, the annual bilateral trade deficit with Beijing has more than doubled between 2020 and 2025 to $115 billion, the report said.