PDA vs Kurmi: Why Akhilesh should be wary of Pankaj Chaudhary’s elevation as UP BJP chief

A nine-time Lok Sabha contestant who has won seven elections, Chaudhary has retained electoral relevance even when the BJP was not in power.

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s decision to hand over the Uttar Pradesh unit to seven-time MP and Union minister Pankaj Chaudhary is being seen as a calculated political move aimed at blunting Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA narrative and rebuilding the BJP’s backward caste base ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections.

Party leaders say Chaudhary’s appointment is not symbolic. By choosing a strong Kurmi face from Purvanchal and a leader rooted in the BJP’s original cadre, the central leadership has signalled a renewed push to consolidate non-Yadav OBCs while attempting to break into the opposition’s Pichchra Dalit Alpsankhak social coalition.

Kurmis are widely regarded as the most influential backward caste after Yadavs in Uttar Pradesh and have traditionally formed a bulwark against the Samajwadi Party’s Yadav-centric support base. However, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections exposed cracks in that alignment. Despite having several Kurmi leaders and allies, including Apna Dal (S), the BJP saw significant erosion of Kurmi votes, a shift that contributed to its sharp decline from 62 seats in 2019 to 36 seats in 2024.

Political observers say this loss forced the BJP into a rethink.

“The party realised that organisational presence and allies alone were not enough to retain the Kurmi vote,” a senior BJP leader said. “A credible, mass leader from the community was needed to send a clear message.”

Chaudhary fits that bill. A nine-time Lok Sabha contestant who has won seven elections, he has retained electoral relevance even when the BJP was not in power. Within the party, he is also seen as the most senior and influential Kurmi leader, apart from Jal Shakti Minister Swatantra Dev Singh. Several other Kurmi ministers and MLAs in the state are either recent entrants from other parties or lack comparable influence within the community.

The BJP’s internal assessment of the 2024 results showed that Kurmi-dominated Assembly segments such as Marihan and Chunar in Mirzapur parliamentary constituency drifted away from the NDA, causing substantial losses.

In Varanasi, reduced Kurmi support in Rohaniya and Sevapuri, along with other segments, narrowed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s victory margin. Similar trends were noticed in Pratapgarh, Prayagraj, and Kaushambi, districts otherwise considered favourable for the party among Kurmi voters.

In Phulpur, BJP MP Praveen Patel managed to retain the parliamentary seat but lost in his own Assembly segment, underscoring the depth of localised discontent. These patterns, party sources say, convinced the leadership that regaining Kurmi confidence had become politically urgent.

For Akhilesh Yadav, the development is being viewed as a potential setback. Political analyst R N Bajpayee said the BJP’s move directly targets the core logic of the PDA formula.

“Akhilesh Yadav’s strength lies in the consolidation of Yadavs with other backward castes and minorities. By placing Pankaj Chaudhary at the helm, the BJP is signalling to Kurmis that they have a decisive stake in the party’s future,” Bajpayee said. “This is a combination that can give Akhilesh Yadav sleepless nights, especially in eastern UP.”

Bajpayee added that Kurmis have often played a swing role in closely fought constituencies. “If the BJP succeeds in pulling them back, it weakens the social arithmetic that the Samajwadi Party has been trying to construct under the PDA banner,” he said.

Beyond caste arithmetic, Chaudhary’s elevation is also meant to reassure the BJP’s organisational workers that loyalty to the original cadre is rewarded. As the party prepares for the 2027 Assembly battle, the leadership believes a Kurmi face with grassroots credibility can help stitch together its backward caste outreach while countering the opposition’s social justice narrative.

Whether the strategy delivers electoral dividends remains to be seen, but in the current political landscape, Pankaj Chaudhary’s rise has clearly altered the equation and intensified the challenge for Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh.