China's 'mother of all dams' project keeps region on edge; India eyes mega counterplan

File photo used for representation

China’s plan to build a $168 billion hydropower system, also known as the “mother of all dams”, on Yarlung Tsangpo remains shrouded in secrecy due to lack of transparency around the project and widespread concerns in India about the potential weaponisation of water.

In a detailed report, the CNN highlighted how the lack of transparency around the dam, dubbed as an engineering marvel by China, is causing unease in neighbouring India, which has already expressed its concerns and said that it is closely monitoring the construction. China’s project is on the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, which becomes the Brahmaputra downstream.

The report said that the dam, which will be the world's most powerful, is part of President Xi Jinping’s ambitious infrastructure expansion plan with an eye on boosing national security. It appears that Beijing not only wants to ramp up energy supply but also tighten control along the India border amid recent tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Once ready, it will be three times more powerful than the Three Gorges Dam, also located in China and currently the world’s largest hydropower station.

Rishi Gupta, assistant director at New Delhi-based Asia Society Policy Institute, told CNN that the dam is “strategically placed”. “If you connect the dots of Chinese infrastructure development in the Himalayas, especially in areas where China borders India along Tibet, they are strategically placed.”

He added that through the project, China seeks to achieve its broader goal of leveraging natural resources to consolidate control over critical regions like Tibet.

For India, the project is particularly worrying because it is being built on the lower reaches of Tibet’s Yarlung Tsangpo river, which flows downstream into India as the Brahmaputra, a river that supports “tens of millions of people” in India and Bangladesh.

There are fears that the Chinese dams could cut dry-season flows on the Indian side by up to 85%.

The CNN report quoted experts as saying that the potential impact on the downstream ecosystem — including “on fishing and farming” — remains “understudied,” even as the scale of the hydropower system is expected to be unprecedented.

India’s concern as a lower riparian is that upstream interventions could alter the river’s natural flow patterns in ways that affect livelihoods and ecology downstream. Which is why most observers in India have said that project could be a potential “water bomb” as it will allow China to manipulate water flow into India.

“China cannot be trusted. No one knows what they will do and when,” Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu had earlier told PTI in an interview.

The situation is also worrying since China has a poor track record of running dams along transnational rivers like the Brahmaputra. According to CNN, China has been accused of even causing drought in Vietnam by manipulating the flow of the Mekong river. Beijing has denied these claims.

“Transparent data sharing and cooperative management will be critical to reducing disputes,” an IIT Guwahati professor told CNN.

According to the CNN report, the hydropower project is being planned as a complex, multi-layered system rather than a single dam.

Clues from official documents, academic papers, satellite imagery and open-source data obtained by CNN suggest it could include dams and reservoirs along the Yarlung Tsangpo (its name for the Brahmaputra river), combined with underground hydropower stations connected by tunnels.

The design is expected to exploit the river’s dramatic 2,000-metre altitude drop at the Great Bend, with water diverted through tunnels blasted through mountains and passed through a series of five cascade power stations, each at a lower elevation, before rejoining the main river.

A reservoir near Mainling city would help regulate water flow, while additional upstream and downstream reservoirs would control how much water enters the tunnel system and returns to the river.

Meanwhile, India is also planning to build a dam on its own side of the river to counter the Chinese project.

Moneycontrol had earlier reported that India is planning at least 208 hydroelectric projects across the Brahmaputra basin on the same river.

State-backed hydropower firm National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) is planning a mega project - 11,200 megawatt dam on the same river – which can potentially counter China’s dam.

The Brahmaputra basin spans parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Manipur, Nagaland and West Bengal, and holds more than 80 percent of India's untapped hydro potential, with Arunachal Pradesh alone accounting for 52.2 GW.

The planned capacity of 65,000 MW on the Brahmaputra basin includes 4,807 MW existing capacity and another 2,000 MW, which is under construction. Besides, the plan also includes pumped hydro storage projects and tiny hydro projects that are of lower capacity than 25 MW each.

Of the 65,000 MW identified capacity, India’s biggest hydropower plant planned so far is the 11,000 MW Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP) in Arunachal Pradesh. However, the project has been stuck for a decade due to opposition from local communities.