BMC polls on January 15: The ‘Marathi Manoos’ factor and how BJP plans to counter a Thackeray reunion

Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray's MNS are expected to announce an alliance ahead of the BMC elections. (File photo)

The proposed reunion between the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, led by estranged cousins Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray, respectively, ahead of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections has sharpened the BJP's focus on 'Marathi Asmita', one of the most potent forces of Mumbai's politics.

Publicly, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has played down the impact of any Shiv Sena (UBT)-MNS understanding. Privately, however, BJP strategists concede that a consolidated Marathi vote could complicate the party's long-standing ambition of wresting control of India's richest civic body, which commands an annual budget of over Rs 50,000 crore.

The BMC, with 227 corporators, has remained under Shiv Sena control since 1997. In the last election held in 2017, the undivided Sena emerged as the single largest party with 84 seats, while the BJP ran a close second with 82. The Congress won 31 seats, the NCP nine, the MNS seven, and smaller parties and independents accounted for the rest.

The political map of Maharashtra has been redrawn since the BMC last went to polls. The Shiv Sena has split into two factions, one led by Uddhav Thackeray and the other by Eknath Shinde, which is now aligned with the BJP. The NCP has also fractured, with Ajit Pawar's faction joining the ruling Mahayuti alliance.

The BMC, however, has remained without elected representatives for over two years, run by administrators, making the January 15 election a high-stakes political test.

For the BJP, the concern is that an Uddhav–Raj alliance could revive a consolidated "Marathi Manoos" campaign, cutting across traditional party loyalties. Marathi-speaking voters account for roughly 25–26 per cent of Mumbai's electorate, concentrated in central Mumbai, parts of the island city, and older residential pockets such as Dadar, Girgaon, Parel and Worli. In these areas, even small shifts in vote share can decide outcomes ward by ward.

The BJP's counter-strategy, on the other hand, rests on its expanding base among non-Marathi voters, particularly North Indians and Gujaratis, who together are estimated to form 30–35 per cent of the city's electorate. Party leaders also believe the support of Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena will prevent a total consolidation of the Marathi vote against the ruling alliance.

At the same time, the BJP has largely written off the Muslim vote, which averages around 11 per cent citywide and is expected to back the Opposition.

Marathi identity has historically shaped Mumbai's politics for years. The undivided Shiv Sena, founded by Bal Thackeray in 1966, built its rise on the "sons of the soil" plank, initially targeting South Indian migrants and later North Indians, while positioning itself as the defender of Marathi pride.

The legacy of the 'Samyukta Maharashtra Movement', which fought to keep Mumbai within Maharashtra in the late 1950s, continues to influence political mobilisation in the city.

Recent developments have underscored the renewed salience of this narrative. In the days following speculation about a Thackeray reunion, posters appealing to Marathi-speaking residents appeared across parts of Mumbai, urging them to "wake up" and "save Mumbai", reported The Indian Express. Sena(UBT) leader Sanjay Raut said the cousins would soon announce their political roadmap and declared that Mumbai would not be "handed over" to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.

The BJP has responded by questioning the Sena's record during its decades-long control of the civic body. State minister and former Mumbai BJP president Ashish Shelar accused the undivided Sena of corruption and alleged that its misgovernance had driven Marathis out of the city. "What have you done for the Marathi Manoos in 25 years of rule in the BMC?" Shelar asked.

Fadnavis, meanwhile, asserts that the Mahayuti will secure the mayor's post regardless of whether the Thackeray cousins join hands. He has sought to centre the election around development, citing major infrastructure projects launched since 2014, including metro corridors, coastal road works and redevelopment initiatives, as evidence of the BJP's governance credentials in Mumbai.

For the BJP, the BMC polls represent unfinished business. Despite being a dominant force in state and national politics, the party has never had its own mayor in Mumbai, even during its long alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena. The near-parity achieved in 2017 marked its closest brush with power in the civic body.

Uddhav Thackeray, on the other hand, has accused the BJP-led Centre of systematically undermining Mumbai's importance by shifting major projects to Gujarat and has warned that the civic body is the party's next target.