Betting or Gaming? The murky world of opinion trading

India has yet to implement a legal framework for the online gaming sector that can determine whether an online money game is permissible or not.

Will Rohit Sharma hit three sixes in six overs? Will Virat Kohli score a century by the 15th over? Will Bumrah take a wicket in the first over? Will Pakistan lose 5 wickets by the 15th over in the match against India in the Champions Trophy?

People can bet real money on the outcome of these questions and win lucrative rewards. This is the murky world of opinion trading, where speculation fuels the gamble.

These apps present themselves as platforms where people can use their knowledge and expertise to make yes-or-no predictions on a range of future real-world events in sports, entertainment, current affairs, technology, economy, and finance. However, given the nature of the responses and people wagering on the outcome of events, these opinion trading platforms may seem akin to betting platforms.

The space has grown exponentially, raking in funding in the past couple of years. However, it has largely flown under the radar in India, escaping scrutiny. According to industry estimates, the sector has over 5 crore users and is generating an annual transaction volume of Rs 50,000 crore. The companies in the sector are projected to reach over Rs 1,000 crore in revenue during the current financial year.

High-profile tournaments like the upcoming Champions Trophy cricket tournament are expected to drive growth for these firms due to high consumer engagement. This tournament is particularly notable because it will feature the highly anticipated India-Pakistan clash after nearly one and a half years.

In India, online money games are generally classified as games of skill or games of chance. Games of chance are those where the winner is predominantly determined by luck and are considered gambling, while games of skill are those where the outcome is primarily determined by the player's skill and strategy.

Only games of skill are considered legal in India and fall under the purview of the union government, while gambling is a state subject in the country.

Opinion trading platforms claim they are skill-based gaming platforms since there is an element of skill that goes into winning money on these platforms. However, some industry experts argue that success on these platforms is largely dependent on luck and involve no skill, due to which they must be classified as games of chance.

India has yet to implement a legal framework for the online gaming sector that can determine whether an online money game is permissible or not.

That said, according to media reports, opinion trading platforms are currently under the scanner of the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY). In 2023, MeitY, while releasing rules for the online gaming sector, had stated that games allowing any form of "betting or wagering on the outcome" will be prohibited in the country.

In the United States, opinion trading platforms are governed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as financial instruments. The CFTC regulates the US derivatives markets.