Battleground Jammu: Why stakes are higher for BJP in final phase of J&K polls

In the Lok Sabha elections held earlier this year, the BJP led in 22 of the 40 Assembly segments that went to polls in the third and final phase of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections on Tuesday. (File Image: PTI)

Voting began at 7 AM across 5,060 polling stations for the last of the three-phase Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. At 40 seats spread across seven districts, this is the largest of the three phases in terms of the number of constituencies as well as the candidates in fray.

Over 39 lakh electors who are eligible to cast their franchise in this phase will vote to elect their legislators for the first time in a decade. Of the 40 Assembly constituencies where polling is being held, 24 fall in the Jammu division while 16 are in Kashmir.

High-stakes battle for BJP

Of the three phases of elections so far, this is the first in which a majority of the seats going to polls fall in the Jammu region, where the BJP has been the dominant force in the last three elections since 2014.

The 24 seats in the Jammu region where polling is underway today proved crucial to the BJP’s overall tally of 25 seats and eventually forming a government in Jammu and Kashmir in alliance with Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP.

Of these 24 seats, the BJP won 18 seats, followed by the Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP in 7 seats, the Farooq Abdullah-led NC in 5, and the Congress, Independents, and Sajad Lone-led PC in 2 seats each.

In the Lok Sabha elections held in 2019, the BJP led in 21 of the 40 Assembly segments where polling is underway in the third phase. The National Conference led in 8, Independent Engineer Rashid in 5 and the People’s Conference in 2.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections held earlier this year, the first poll after the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 and the delimitation exercise in 2022, the BJP led in 22 of these 40 Assembly segments, followed by the NC and Congress at two each, and the People’s Conference at one. Engineer Rashid led in 13 segments and won the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat.

Key contests in Jammu

Among the candidates whose fate hangs balance in the Jammu region include former ministers Tara Chand from Chhamb, Choudhary Lal Singh from Basohli, Surjit Singh Slathia from Samba, Sham Lal Sharma, Ajay Sadhotra from Jammu North, and Devender Singh Rana from Nagrota where a three-way contest between the NC, Congress and the BJP is in play.

In Chenani, cousins Harshdev Singh and Balwant Singh Mankotia, both nephews of the late Professor Bhim Singh who founded the J&K Panthers Party, are pitted against each other.

While the caste factor is expected to be a significant decider, this phase will also mark the presence of 1-1.5 lakh voters from among the descendants of refugees from West Pakistan and a few thousand from Valmiki and Gorkha communities who became eligible to vote for the first time since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.

The 24 constituencies going to polls in the Jammu region include those in the Jammu, Udhampur and Kathua districts. While the BJP has fielded candidates in all 24 seats in the Jammu region in the third phase, the Congress has fielded 19 candidates and its alliance partner NC, 5.

The results to the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections are scheduled to be declared on October 8.