AIADMK-BJP reunite: Uphill battle for DMK without possible alliance?

Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced BJP and AIADMK will jointly contest the 2026 Tamil Nadu election. (Courtesy: X | @AmitShah)

The BJP's alliance with the AIADMK effectively makes next year's Assembly election in Tamil Nadu a two-horse race. The match-up ruins the hopes of actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam to emerge as a serious player in combination with the AIADMK and ensures that no party can hope to make any impact outside of the Dravidian fronts, the DMK-led UPA and the AIADMK-led NDA.

Last year's Lok Sabha election taught both the BJP and the AIADMK an important lesson: if they don't swim together, they will sink separately. Despite a reduced vote share in comparison to the 2021 Assembly election, the DMK front swept all the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu and the lone seat in Puducherry.

The BJP improved its vote share, but had no seat to show for it. An alliance with the AIADMK could have made the difference between victory and defeat in more than a dozen constituencies.

The DMK front has a settled look with the Congress, the Left parties, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi of Dalit leader Thol Thirumavalavan, and smaller parties such as the MDMK of Vaiko and MNM of actor Kamal Haasan.

The rival alliance has put the brakes on the DMK's ambitions as it faces a huge anti-incumbency factor with regard to corruption and the law and order situation. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin would certainly need to rework his strategy now to face the new challenge.

The party cannot find new allies as both TVK and NTK are not well disposed towards it. Moreover, seat sharing will be a difficult exercise with new demands from existing allies. With no space to grow, and no numbers to add, the DMK could find the coordinated attack from the AIADMK and the BJP difficult to handle. The coming together of the two main opposition parties has sown confusion among its strategists.

The opposite is true in the other camp. For both the AIADMK and the BJP and their allies, there is greater tactical clarity now. For a long time there was confusion within parties such as the Pattali Makkal Katchi, with one section led by R. Anbumani wanting to ally with the BJP and the other led by his father S Ramdoss preferring a tie-up with the AIADMK. Also, parties such as the TMC of GK Vasan, a staunch ally of the BJP, pushed the BJP for an alliance with the AIADMK as the only viable option to take on the DMK.

Within the BJP and the AIADMK too, there were voices for joining forces with each other. Former BJP state unit president Tamilisai Soundarrajan and current president Nainar Nagendran also encouraged the national leadership to come to a seat-sharing agreement with the AIADMK.

Inside the AIADMK, the strongest voice in support of electoral adjustment with the BJP came from former minister SP Velumani. Another senior leader KA Sengottaiyan, who was not happy with the leadership of Palaniswami, opened a separate channel of communication with the BJP, and met with Union Minister Amit Shah in Delhi.

After having walked out of the NDA in protest against BJP state unit president K Annamalai's criticism of its icons, AIADMK was only looking for a face-saving way to work its way back into the alliance. The BJP obliged by replacing Annamalai with Nagendran and promising not to force the AIADMK to take back its breakaway faction leaders O Panneerselvam and TTV Dinakaran. After this, all other things fell in place.

But seat sharing won't be easy: both AIADMK and BJP have collected small parties as allies and they will have to be accommodated in some measure. And although AIADMK has given in to the BJP's demand for a coalition government in the event of the alliance being voted to power, it would still like to contest a majority of the 234 seats in the Assembly and give itself a fighting chance to win a majority of its own.

The BJP gained two important things with the alliance. It now has a reasonable shot at displacing the DMK government. Stalin has been a thorn in the flesh for the BJP as he mobilised support not only among the southern states, but in the north as well, on issues such as new education policy and delimitation. Stalin’s opposition to the Centre's interference in state affairs through the office of the governor and his victory in the Supreme Court in this regard were also pain points. Secondly, it wrested an assurance from the AIADMK on a coalition government, something the Dravidian parties have been reluctant to concede thus far. It achieved that this time.

Annamalai, like L Murugan before him, is likely to be accommodated at the Centre. But he will continue to play a crucial role in the party’s functioning in the state. Both BJP and the AIADMK have made concessions to each other to come to an understanding. But it will not be a simple addition of two vote banks. The AIADMK does have a small section of supporters opposed to the BJP. Many might shift their preference to the DMK front. Similarly, the BJP has voters opposed to the AIADMK, especially those who have not forgiven the party for arresting the Kanchi Shankaracharya. They are unlikely to shift their allegiance to the DMK, but they might stay away from the polling booths.