10 takeaways from BMC election results: Mumbaicha new Raja, 'unsettled' Sena debate, end of Thackeray reign

The BJP-led Mahayuti emerged Mumbaicha Raja on Friday after retaining control of the BMC and decisively ending the three-decade Thackeray stronghold over the cash-rich civic body.

According to the latest trends, the Mahayuti alliance of BJP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena are ahead in over 119 out of the total 227 wards, while Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray's MNS are lagging behind at just 57 wards. The Congress, which contested the elections outside of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, is leading in 12 wards.

The result of the prestigious civic body election will have wider ramifications on the politics of Maharashtra, where the BJP has steadily marked its dominance and established itself as the pre-eminent political force. It also underscores how metropolitan fault lines can blunt the Marathi Asmita (pride) impact, which was the primary poll pitch of the reunited Thackeray brothers.

BJP emerges as major force in Maharashtra: The saffron party rode to power in the 2017 BMC polls in large part due to its alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena. BJP won the second highest number of wards at 82, just two shy of Shiv Sena's 84. Nearly a decade later, the BJP has become the dominant big brother in the NDA, carrying the alliance to a comfortable victory despite a lacklustre show by the splintered faction of Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, which is leading in 30 wards. The party's dominant performance (leads in 99 wards) also cements its position as the apex political force in the city in the post-Balasaheb Thackeray era.

Thackerays lose prized political heirloom: Since 1997, the Shiv Sena had maintained an iron grip over Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, India's richest municipal body. This is the first time in nearly 30 years that no Thackeray will be ruling the civic body, with the voters of Mumbai giving a thumbs down to the Raj-Uddhav combine. The cousins, who had a grand reunion before the polls, banked heavily on the Marathi Manoos factor to consolidate the city's majority Marathi population. The identity politics appears to have backfired with both their parties failing to make a mark in the election. As per trends, the Shiv Sena (UBT) is ahead in 59 seats while MNS is leading in just 9.

Fadnavis proves mettle yet again: Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis spearheaded BJP's aggressive campaigning for the BMC polls and yet again delivered a victory for his party, on the back of a solid show in the December local body polls. The proven backroom strategist of BJP, Fadnavis, managed to keep the Mahayuti flock together going into civic contests despite poaching concerns from the Shinde faction. He also countered the identity politics of the Thackerays, strongly dismissing the "Marathi vs Non-Marathi" divide in the city. The messaging augured well for the BJP, since it helped consolidate the non-Marathi voters, particularly North Indians and Gujaratis, who comprise nearly 30–35% of the city's electorate.

Marathi Manoos pitch falls short: The identity politics of Raj and Uddhav Thackeray failed to yield a positive result, bringing into question the long-standing strategy of the two parties. The Thackerays drew the battle lines not just around Marathi asmita but around Marathi astitva (existence). Raj Thackeray even framed the election as the “last chance” for the voters to prevent the city "from being looted by the outsiders”. While the Marathi pitch may have helped the Thackerays win votes from the core base, it did not prove enough to trounce the BJP-Eknath Shinde Shiv Sena combine. Moreover, the split in Shiv Sena may have divided the loyality of the Marathi voter base, eventually helping the BJP.

Cong's solo show yields hollow returns: The grand old party stepped out of the shadows of its broader MVA and decided to contest the election with Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSPS). But the party failed to make a dent in the city, with leads/wins in just 14 wards. In fact, Congress has witnessed a gradual decline in its seat share, from 52 in 2012, to 31 in 2017 to just 14 in 2026. The results signal the party's diminishing presence in Mumbai across elections and the party's failure to give a strong counter challenge to BJP on the back of Muslim and Dalit votes.

Shiv Sena debate not yet settled? Though Eknath Shinde's Sena is part of the victorious alliance in Mumbai, the overall seat share of his faction spells some worry. Shinde Sena has leads/wins in 26 wards while Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) has leads/wins in 60 wards. Overall, the Uddhav faction has captured more wards in Mumbai than Shinde. Even Uddhav's strike rate is better than Shinde. His faction won nearly 38% of the wards it contested while Shinde Sena won just 30% of the wards it contested. The result signal that the jury is still out on the debate over the political legitimacy of Shinde Sena.

Raj Thackeray flop show: The hardline campaign led by Raj Thackeray to divide the Marathi and Non-Marathi voters couldn't translate into results, signalling the dwindling efficacy of his identity and language politics. The MNS has leads/wins in just 9 wards out of the 53 it contested. For years, Raj Thackeray has been trying to cast himself in the mould of Balasaheb Thackeray, his ideological inspiration. The Marathi card, which once propelled Bal Thackeray to the front and centre of Mumbai politics, has not delivered similar returns for his nephew Raj Thackeray. It's partly due to the deep divisions among the parties battling for Marathi votes as well as the changing demographics of Mumbai itself. Moreover, Raj's cosmetic reunion with Uddhav and the weaponisation of Marathi card (incidents of assaults against non-Marathi speakers) may have done more harm than good.

Ajit Pawar a no-impact player: Like the Congress in MVA, the NCP led by Ajit Pawar contested the BMC polls solo. Pawar had decided to back party leader Nawab Malik despite the BJP’s reservations over his participation in the election, citing the cases pending against him. The gambit didn't work for the junior Pawar since his faction may just win one ward of the 37 it contested.

Bigger questions for opposition: Even though BMC is a hyperlocal election, the results bear significant political symbolism. It captures the pulse of India's financial capital and a wide mix of urban voters who form the demography of Mumbai. The result cements BJP as the dominant political force, with the party building on its gains from the 2024 Maharashtra legislative elections. The BJP-led Mahayuti also put it up a strong show across other civic bodies of Maharashtra as well. For the opposition, the BMC result again raises pointed questions since it failed to act as a counterforce to the saffron party despite an encouraging revival in the general election.

Exit polls get it right: The pollsters got the results right, even though the predictions were slightly higher than the actual outcome. Axis My India exit poll had predicted 131-151 wards for Mahayuti and 58-68 for the Thackerays. JVC exit poll predicted 138 seats for the Mahayuti and 59 for Thackerays. Similarly, the Sakal exit poll projected 119 seats for Mahayuti and 75 for the Thackerays.