Virologist Dr Shahid Jameel on COVID-19: "We have to get used to this way of life for the next few years"

Dr Shahid Jameel says that hospitals look better prepared and equipped than in the Second Wave, but the biggest challenge for them would be healthcare workers getting infected. (Illustration: Suneesh Kalarickal)

Dr Shahid Jameel is a leading Indian virologist and academic. Currently, he is the Sultan Qaboos bin Said Fellow at Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies and Research Fellow, Green Templeton College, University of Oxford. Dr Jameel has been Chief Executive Officer of the Wellcome Trust/DBT India Alliance, an independent public charity that funds research in health and biomedical sciences in India, since April 2013.

Prior to joining the India Alliance, he was Group Leader of Virology at the International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, New Delhi, for over 25 years. He did his PhD in Biochemistry from Washington State University (USA) and his postdoctoral work in Molecular Virology from the University of Colorado Medical School (USA).

Last May, Dr Jameel had resigned as head of India's virus genome sequencing group. In an opinion piece written for the New York Times, he said that "scientists were facing stubborn-resistance to evidence-based policy-making".

In an interview with Moneycontrol, Dr Jameel looks at various aspects of the coronavirus pandemic, Omicron and new variants that may crop up. Excerpts from the interview:

What is the most likely scenario for the spread of the coronavirus over the next two months?

 The cases in India are already rising very quickly - about 195,000 cases were reported on January 11. Over the next 2-4 weeks there would possibly be a peak and then cases will decline fairly quickly, if we experience South Africa's trajectory. The Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) (IISc-ISI model) for India predict a best-case scenario peaking around 300,000 cases per day in another week. The worst-case scenario shows a peak of around 1 million daily cases in the last week of January. What follows will depend upon what percentage of India is susceptible. By early March, the case numbers should be down to baseline. Severe disease and hospitalisation is projected to be lower, with the best case scenario predicting the need for about 170-180,000 beds per day at peak.

Read also: Coronavirus Omicron Live Updates.

What becomes of economic activity? 

Economic activity will suffer as fewer people will go to work, markets, restaurants, etc either due to Covid symptoms and isolation or due to reduced opening times, among other issues.

 What kind of activities can be permitted? Return to restaurants, cinema halls, malls and traveling, both local and global? 

Any indoor activity that requires one to remove a mask should be restricted at this time.

What about manufacturing?

Manufacturing with reduced workforce at any time, using shifts, etc can proceed with strict guidance to follow proper masking.

 What should peoples' activities be in the next month or so?

(a) Don't panic; (b) Continue to use masks indoors and in crowded outdoor locations; (c) restrict indoor activities, especially those that require taking off the mask; (d) improve ventilation; (e) carry on with your life with common sense.

What should organisations do under the circumstances concerning employees and workplace?

They need to provide better ventilation at the workplace; provide good masks to all employees and ensure compliance; invest in the health of employees; generously use the work from home (WFH) option and reduce staff by working in shifts.

 When will India reach the endemic stage and by when can companies bring back employees into their workplace?

Very hard to say when the endemic stage will be reached. If people are fully vaccinated, they may get infected but will not have severe disease even if fresh variants come up. Vaccination is critical. Get used to this way of life for the next few years. Companies should invest in people instead of letting them go and become more flexible in their approach to work.

 What do you say about Covid and hospitalisation data in India?

So far it looks like hospital admissions in India are under control. Hospitals are also better prepared and equipped with medicines, oxygen, ventilators, and so on, compared to the Second Wave. The biggest challenge for hospitals is healthcare workers getting infected. Even if they have asymptomatic/mild infection, they have to be isolated and that puts pressure on the remaining workforce.

The Omicron was supposed to be mild. Do you believe that is the case? Some reports suggest a mounting death toll in the country and across the world.

The evidence so far is that the infection is milder than Delta, especially in people who have received two vaccine doses or have hybrid (infection-vaccination) immunity. Those in hospital are largely the unvaccinated, the elderly and people with comorbidities.

But to think that Omicron is a 'natural vaccine’ is not correct. By that it is implied that one can get infected on purpose to be protected in future. We still don't know (a) how individuals will respond due to age or underlying health conditions; and (b) effects of "long Covid" even in those who get mild disease.