US-Bangladesh deal may reshape dairy trade dynamics; New Zealand among those exposed

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• US beef exports to Bangladesh reached $190 million in 2024
• New Zealand leads dairy exports to Bangladesh, exceeding $230 billion.
• US tariff concessions may boost American dairy and protein exports to Bangladesh

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The evolving trade arrangement between the US and Bangladesh could ripple beyond textiles and manufacturing, extending into agriculture and food supply chains.

A Moneycontrol analysis of trade data suggests that New Zealand’s dairy exports may face indirect pressure as Bangladesh strengthens sourcing ties with the US under the emerging trade framework.

The data indicate a strong US footprint in Bangladesh’s meat imports, particularly beef. Imports of fresh bovine meat alone stood at roughly $190 million from the US in 2024, underscoring Washington’s dominant position in this segment.

At the same time, dairy imports remain heavily skewed toward traditional exporters such as New Zealand. The country continues to dominate in products such as milk powder, butter and dairy fats. For instance, New Zealand’s dairy exports to Bangladesh exceeded $230 billion, over half of total imports and significantly higher than competing suppliers. European producers also retain a notable presence, with exports of $45 million.

However, preferential tariff access for US agricultural exports under a Bangladesh-US arrangement could gradually alter sourcing patterns. With tariff reductions extending to dairy, American exporters — currently small players in Bangladesh’s dairy market — could gain price competitiveness against established suppliers like New Zealand, Australia and the European Union.

Beyond dairy, the agreement could also reinforce the US’s already strong position in Bangladesh’s protein imports, especially beef and poultry products. This would consolidate Washington’s role in Bangladesh’s food supply chains while potentially crowding out alternative exporters over time.

For New Zealand, which relies heavily on dairy exports as a share of its total merchandise trade, market erosion in fast-growing South Asian economies could have wider implications. Meanwhile, the European Union and Australia could face similar competitive pressures if tariff concessions are extended across multiple agricultural product lines.