An unusual pattern in India-US trade: Fall under low tariffs, rise under high; here's why

September, the first full month under the 50 per cent tariff, marked the low point.

India's exports to the US between May and November 2025 followed a clear two-phase pattern: a sharp decline until September, followed by a partial recovery by November, according to an analysis by the trade-focused think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

India's exports to the U.S. fell 20.7% from $8.8 billion in May to $7.0 billion in November. The decline was much sharper earlier in the year, as exports dropped 37.7% from May to September, reaching a low of $5.5 billion. From that trough, exports partly recovered by 27.3% between September and November, indicating a rebound after a steep mid-year fall.

According to the GTRI, nearly 85% of November exports came from sectors that first declined and then rebounded. For example, Gems and Jewellery exports plunged from $500.2 million in May to $202.8 million in September, then rebounded to $406.2 million in November.

According to GTRI, same pattern is visible across electronics (smartphones), machinery, vehicles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, textiles and garments, carpets, mineral fuels, organic chemicals, plastics, rubber articles, fish, dairy products, and edible fruits and nuts.

"India's exports fell more sharply during the low-tariff phase and then recovered partially under the higher-tariff regime. This pattern is unusual," GTRI said.

Exports fell between May and September even though tariffs were relatively low--10 per cent in May, June and July, 10 per cent from August 1-6, 25 per cent from August 7-27, and only 50 per cent from August 28-31.

September, the first full month under the 50 per cent tariff, marked the low point.

"Yet exports partly recovered between September and November, even though the 50 per cent tariff remained in place throughout that period," the GTRI report read.

"The drop between May and September likely reflected the shock and uncertainty created by impending tariff hikes, which led buyers to delay orders and run down inventories. Once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and U.S. buyers began adjusting--absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting toward less-affected or hard-to-substitute products."

In sectors such as electronics and machinery, supply-chain realignments and inventory restocking ahead of the US holiday season also supported shipments, GTRI asserted. "The rebound after September therefore reflects adjustment to a tougher tariff regime, not relief, and remains fragile, driven by short-term coping strategies rather than a lasting improvement," the GTRI statement concluded.