TikTok owner ByteDance on track for $50 billion profit in 2025

Shou Zi Chew, chief executive officer of TikTok

ByteDance Ltd. is on track for profits of roughly $50 billion in 2025, capping a record year for a Chinese social media leader making major inroads into e-commerce and new markets.

The Beijing-based parent company of TikTok is on track to hit that milestone after amassing net income of about $40 billion over the year’s first three quarters, people familiar with the matter said. It’s already surpassed its internal target for 2025, the people said, asking to remain anonymous to discuss private financials. That would take the company’s earnings close to that of US rival Meta Platforms Inc., which is projected to earn about $60 billion this year.

A ByteDance spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

TikTok’s success has come under scrutiny after the Biden administration led an effort to ban the Chinese-owned social media phenomenon from the US, citing national security concerns. ByteDance is now close to finalizing a plan to hive off the video service in the US, which will ensure the platform survives while loosening the Chinese company’s control.

TikTok Chief Executive Officer Shou Chew told employees that ByteDance signed binding agreements to create a joint venture majority-owned by American investors including Oracle Corp., according to an internal memo reviewed by Bloomberg. Chinese regulators have yet to say whether they’ll approve the transaction — a key requirement for a deal to proceed.

Despite Washington’s scrutiny, TikTok has expanded globally at a rapid clip — including in the US. It has been pushing aggressively into e-commerce and livestream shopping, including partnering with major American tech companies such as Amazon.com Inc. The same day that Chew announced an agreement had been reached, TikTok held its first-ever Oscars-style red carpet show, The TikTok Awards, in Los Angeles.

It’s unclear how much ByteDance has increased revenue this year. The company had targeted about a 20% rise in 2025 sales to $186 billion, Bloomberg News has reported.

That would cap years of 20%-plus growth for the company founded in 2012 by Zhang Yiming. ByteDance has created several of China’s most popular digital services, including Toutiao and Douyin, a version of TikTok for the mainland market. It’s also vying with incumbents Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. in artificial intelligence, developing large language models, chatbots and other services.

The topline growth would take the Chinese internet leader to a tad below Meta’s projected revenue of about $200 billion this year. ByteDance claimed more than 4 billion monthly active users for its suite of apps, also in the ballpark of Meta’s.

SoftBank Group Corp.’s Vision Fund revalued the company to north of $400 billion last year, in part because of its growing presence in generative AI. Fidelity Investments and T. Rowe Price Group Inc. have also marked up ByteDance, valuing it at above $410 billion and $450 billion, respectively, Bloomberg News has reported. More recently, a Chinese investment firm bought a block of ByteDance Ltd. shares at a valuation of $480 billion, far above recent levels, a sign of strong investor interest.

Meta’s valuation is about $1.7 trillion, the sixth-highest in the world through Thursday’s market close in the US.

Still, for ByteDance, growth is likely to be slower than previous years. Douyin — its main revenue driver — is grappling with waning consumption and advertising spending across the world’s second-largest economy. TikTok — a near-identical replica — has in the meantime taken up more of the burden for topline growth.