HDFC Securities' research report on Tech Mahindra
Tech Mahindra’s (TECHM) disappointing Q1 performance has elements that could take longer to recover. While the dismal levels of margin are the bottom, its recovery trajectory can be protracted. The slip in Q1 revenue of -4% QoQ was largely led by the CME vertical (38% of revenue) which dropped 9.5% QoQ, while the Enterprise segment delivered in line with peers (flat sequentially). The decline in the CME vertical was a combination of impact on network services, lower discretionary spend, and transition-delay between project completion and project/phase starts. The margin was impacted by certain oneoffs pertaining to provision towards client-specific situations (-200bps impact).
Outlook
We downgrade TECHM to Reduce (ADD earlier) with a TP at INR 1,020 (14x Jun-25E EPS) as recovery in growth/margin may be protracted on sub-par bookings and near-term challenges in CME vertical may persist for longer (recent instances of deals from large customers going to competition as well as business challenges for telcos).
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