DLF reported a strong Q4FY25 performance driven by one-off revenue recognition from its 'One Midtown' project, but Nomura has maintained a Neutral rating on the stock, citing a lack of fresh triggers in its FY26 guidance and a decline in pre-sales momentum.
In the opening session on May 20, the shares of DLF were trading at a gain of 2 percent.
DLF ended FY25 with a net cash balance of Rs 6,800 crore, providing it a strong foundation to execute its project pipeline. However, given the unchanged launch schedule and lack of major near-term catalysts, Nomura believes a Neutral stance remains appropriate, with a target price of Rs 700.
The realty major posted robust earnings for the March quarter, with revenue, EBITDA and PAT coming in at Rs 13,100 crore (47 percent higher), Rs 10,100 crore (30 percent higher) and Rs 13,000 crore (39 percent higher), respectively. The performance was largely driven by first-time revenue recognition from 'Independent Floors' and the high-margin 'Midtown JV' project. Collections stood at Rs 3,300 crore for the quarter, registering 54 percent YoY growth.
However, pre-sales for the quarter fell sequentially to Rs 20,000 crore, as there were no new launches. While this still represented a 39 percent YoY rise, it was sharply down 83 percent from Q3, missing expectations. Pre-sales were mainly sustained by the Dahlia project in New Gurgaon, which contributed Rs 19,000 crore.
Nomura highlighted that DLF did not provide a fresh pre-sales guidance for FY26, and retained its launch pipeline forecast at Rs 739,000 crore, with Rs 1,70,000 to 180,000 crore expected to be launched in the coming fiscal. This includes key projects such as Privana North in Gurgaon and an upcoming launch in Andheri, Mumbai.
The brokerage estimates FY26 pre-sales at Rs 230,000 crore, implying a 10% YoY decline, factoring in execution timelines and inventory absorption.
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