Hold Dalmia Bharat; target of Rs 2302: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher recommended hold rating on Dalmia Bharat with a target price of Rs 2302 in its research report dated January 22, 2026.

Broker Research

January 22, 2026 / 12:57 IST

hold

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Dalmia Bharat

We downgrade the stock to ‘HOLD’ due to the recent run-up. Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA) reported lower-than-expected Q3FY26 operating performance, despite strong volume growth, impacted by weak pricing and elevated costs. Volumes grew 9.5% YoY led by improved cement demand. Average NSR declined 4% QoQ due to decline in cement prices in DALBHARA’s key markets of East and South. While freight costs declined on higher direct dispatches and lower lead distance, RM costs increased due to the Tamil Nadu Mineral Bearing Land Act, other costs rose on account of higher shutdown and marketing expenses, and P&F costs were up, resulting in EBITDA/t of Rs774 (PLe: Rs898). Blended fuel costs may rise in the near term due to higher pet coke prices, partly offset by higher domestic coal and RE usage.

Outlook

We tweak our FY27/28E EBITDA by -2%/+4% to incorporate lower incentives and higher volumes in FY28 and expect 23% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28E. At CMP, the stock is trading at 11.6x/9.9x EV of FY27/FY28E EBITDA. Downgrade to ‘HOLD’ with revised TP of Rs2,302 (earlier ‘Accumulate’, TP Rs2,273) valuing at same 11x EV of Sep’27E EBITDA.

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